Moscow is not excited about "home ball", will Kiev's bet succeed or fail?

The ceasefire agreement in Ukraine recently reached in Saudi Arabia may not receive a "nod" from Russia. However, Kiev has somewhat improved its relationship with Washington, making President Trump "cool down".

The ceasefire agreed by the US and Ukraine lasts for 30 days and can be extended. (Source: The Guardian)

After more than three years of conflict, Ukraine has agreed to a US proposal for a ceasefire. According to a joint statement from the Ukrainian and US governments , a 30-day ceasefire will take effect if Russia accepts similar terms.

The deal was reached after eight hours of negotiations in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on March 11, with the participation of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chief of Staff of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Andriy Yermak.

Points to note

Writing on social network X later, President Zelenskyy added that the plan would include "a temporary ceasefire for 30 days, not only stopping missile and drone attacks, but also on all fronts, including the Black Sea.

Ukraine is ready to accept this proposal – we consider it a positive step and are ready to implement it. Now the US must convince Russia to do the same.”

US President Donald Trump said he would speak with Russian leader Vladimir Putin about accepting a ceasefire plan. “It takes two to tango,” Trump said.

Mr Trump’s team said it would take the 30-day ceasefire plan to Moscow. “The ball is now in their court,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.

Russia has expressed satisfaction with Mr Trump's conduct so far, and according to some sources, the ceasefire plan does not impose any preconditions on the Kremlin other than a pause in the conflict.

Within the framework of the agreement, the ceasefire will facilitate humanitarian measures, including prisoner exchanges, the release of detained civilians “and the repatriation of forcibly displaced Ukrainian children,” according to a joint statement on the ceasefire.

Will Russia "nod"?

The initial reaction from Moscow was not enthusiastic. “We do not rule out the possibility of contact with US representatives in the next few days,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told Russia’s TASS news agency.

Western officials have long doubted whether Russia is truly interested in lasting peace , even if Moscow agrees to a 30-day ceasefire. Russia is gaining ground on the ground with support from some of its traditional partners.

President Putin has also made demands for a lasting deal that Ukraine is unlikely to accept, including banning European peacekeepers and demanding international recognition of Russian-controlled territories. Is President Putin willing to compromise just because President Trump wants it?

Not a peace deal

After cutting off military supplies and intelligence to Kiev, the US has agreed to resume sharing classified information. Washington will also restart “security assistance” to Kiev.

It is worth noting that the US-Ukraine agreement is only a temporary ceasefire, which can be extended if both Kiev and Moscow agree. Once the conflict has paused, negotiations on a permanent peace will begin. Both the US and Ukraine have pledged to announce their negotiating teams soon.

President Donald Trump said he would speak out to persuade Russia to agree to a ceasefire. (Source: Getty)

No mention of territorial concessions

President Trump has repeatedly stressed that he wants the United States to gain access to Ukraine’s vital minerals such as lithium, uranium and titanium. Washington had hoped that President Zelenskyy would sign a resource rights agreement with US companies when he visited the White House two weeks ago, but the plan fell apart amid a public spat between the two leaders and Vice President JD Vance.

After announcing the ceasefire plan on March 11, Mr. Trump told reporters that he would invite Mr. Zelenskyy back to the White House.

Ahead of the talks in Saudi Arabia, Secretary of State Rubio warned Kiev that it would have to make concessions, including on territorial issues. However, according to a Ukrainian official, during the eight hours of discussions in Jeddah, the topic of territorial concessions was not raised.

Still, the issue will certainly come up if serious talks on a long-term deal begin.

Europe is also ready

The US president has made clear that he does not intend to make “too many” security commitments to Ukraine, saying that this is a European responsibility, not the US. There was no indication in the joint statement on March 11 that this position has changed.

The joint statement said Ukraine wants European partners to participate in the peace process. However, it is unclear whether the US side agrees with this view.

Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer were quick to praise progress in peace talks.

Prime Minister Starmer will hold a meeting with European and other leaders on Saturday. He has been working with French President Emmanuel Macron to assemble a “coalition of the willing” – countries willing to send troops as peacekeepers or provide support for an international mission to maintain a lasting ceasefire.

The United States is not involved in these discussions, as the Trump administration has stated that there will be no US troops in Ukraine.

It will all depend on whether the alliance of Prime Minister Starmer and President Macron is strong enough to convince Ukraine that it can deter Russia from attacking, and neutral enough that Moscow does not see this “coalition of the willing” as a threat.

Politico quoted comments from Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a military analyst who served as Ukraine's defense minister from 2019 to 2020, saying that accepting the ceasefire proposal would help Kiev significantly improve its relationship with the United States.

But he warned that the fundamental issues in the conflict with Russia remained unresolved, weeks after the US began direct dialogue with Moscow and reversed course on the conflict.

"We still don't understand what Russia wants in exchange for peace. We still don't know whether the United States will side with Ukraine or pursue the position that Kiev's opinion is fundamentally less important than Moscow's," Zagorodnyuk commented.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/thoa-thuan-ngu-ban-nga-ukraine-moscow-khong-hao-hung-voi-qua-bong-tren-san-nha-van-cuoc-cua-kiev-thanh-hay-bai-307438.html