Market Upgrade: A Billion Dollar Opportunity for Consumer and Retail Businesses

After many years on the watch list, Vietnam has officially joined the emerging market group, a milestone awaited by global investors.

Turning point of integration and boost for foreign capital flow

Vietnam’s stock market was officially upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE Russell on October 8, 2025, marking a historic milestone after many years of reform efforts. This decision is expected to take effect from the September 2026 classification period, after being reviewed in the March 2026 assessment period.

This event affirms Vietnam's deeper integration into the global financial system, reflecting the results of the process of perfecting the legal framework, upgrading transaction infrastructure and improving transparency.

The upgrade not only means a “rebranding” but also creates a strong boost in the ability to mobilize international capital. When Vietnam is officially included in global index baskets such as FTSE Emerging Markets and in the future, possibly MSCI Emerging Markets, the market will open the door to access a series of passive ETFs as well as large-scale active capital flows. According to SSI Research’s estimates, the total amount of ETF capital that can be poured into Vietnam is up to about 1 billion USD in the first phase after the upgrade, if the portfolio restructuring process goes smoothly.

Along with opportunities, upgrading also poses higher requirements for transparency, governance and transaction standards. This is not only a challenge, but also a driving force for Vietnamese enterprises to strengthen their competitiveness, optimize capital costs and attract long-term investors.

In that context, the attention of international investors often focuses on stocks with large capitalization, high liquidity and representing the consumption structure of the economy. According to SSI Research, Masan Group (HOSE: MSN) is one of the most promising candidates, fully meeting the criteria of global investment funds, thanks to its integrated business platform, large capitalization and stable growth potential. SSI estimates that MSN shares can attract about 98 million USD of foreign capital in the first stage after Vietnam is upgraded.

Prestigious cosmetic products are sold at WinMart

Advantages from the consumer - retail ecosystem

The story of Masan (HOSE: MSN) clearly shows how a domestic enterprise can benefit from the official upgrade of the Vietnamese market. In the first half of 2025, the group recorded a consolidated revenue of more than VND37,200 billion and a profit after tax of VND2,602 billion, nearly double compared to the same period and completing more than half of the annual plan. These figures reflect a synchronous improvement across the entire ecosystem, from modern retail, food, animal protein, to fast-moving consumer goods and high-tech materials.

According to information from the enterprise, in the first 9 months of 2025, Masan is estimated to achieve profit after tax before minority interests (NPAT Pre-MI) exceeding 90% compared to the 2025 base scenario profit plan.

Customers shopping at WinMart Bien Hoa supermarket

In particular, WinCommerce (WCM) continues to be the main driving force contributing to positive business results. As of August, the WCM chain has opened 415 more stores, 75% of which are in rural areas, an area that accounts for more than 60% of the population but modern retail still has a lot of room. In August alone, revenue reached VND 3,573 billion, up 24.2% over the same period, showing increasingly effective operations.

In addition, in August 2025, Masan MEATLife (UpCom: MML) recorded positive business results with sales volume reaching 14,007 tons, up 12.9% year-on-year. Net revenue reached VND999 billion, up 11.1%, reflecting stable demand and increasing contributions from modern retail channels. Operational efficiency was significantly improved when EBIT reached VND50 billion, up 42.9% year-on-year, while profit after tax increased sharply to VND35 billion, equivalent to an increase of 60.5%. EBITDA also reached VND90 billion, 18% higher than the same period last year, showing continued consolidation of profit margins. This result affirms MML's sustainable recovery momentum after the restructuring period, with consistent improvements in both operating scale and financial efficiency.

Not only that, Masan Consumer (UpCom: MCH) continues to maintain its pivotal role in the FMCG industry with a strategy of product innovation and export expansion, helping to offset domestic competitive pressure. Masan High-Tech Materials (HoSE: MSR) continues to benefit from global commodity price fluctuations, which is expected to contribute positively to Masan's overall profit in the second half of this year.

However, opportunities come with challenges. To take advantage of international capital flows, Masan needs to maintain steady growth in a fiercely competitive environment and improve governance standards to meet the increasingly stringent expectations of global investors. Short-term fluctuations in stock prices may occur during index restructuring periods, but in the long term, the upgrade will become a catalyst for businesses to strengthen financial discipline, expand their ability to mobilize capital and connect more closely with international markets.

The market upgrade is the start of a revaluation cycle for Vietnamese stocks. Although international capital flows will still be affected by global fluctuations, businesses with solid foundations and essential consumption models like Masan are considered attractive options as the market enters a long-term development trajectory.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/nang-hang-thi-truong-co-hoi-ty-do-cho-cac-doanh-nghiep-tieu-dung---ban-le-d407238.html