Stocks started this week with a sharp decline. Selling pressure increased sharply in the second half of the afternoon session, causing the VN-Index to fall nearly 60 points (4.7%), to nearly 1,200 points - the sharpest decline in nearly two years.
According to Saigon - Hanoi Securities Company (SHS), VN-Index started this week with great pressure from the world situation, such as increased Iran - Israel tensions and strong exchange rate pressure.
The domestic macro situation has shown signs of improvement with the first quarter GDP reaching a 5-year high, but these indicators are not entirely positive as credit growth is weak, exchange rates are high, and difficulties in the real estate market, especially the bond market, have not yet had significant changes. The global economic situation is also unpredictable with geopolitical instability and low growth, especially in the EU region.
Mr. Huynh Hoang Phuong - Director of Investment Research and Analysis at FIDT, also said that the "crash" was a result of the market having had a long-term increase with an efficiency of nearly 13% since the beginning of the year. "That is the result of the market moving ahead of the macro indicators," he commented.
According to him, the Vietnamese economy has recently recovered but is not yet sustainable as the two components: private consumption and investment - which account for a high proportion of GDP - have not increased strongly and steadily. Meanwhile, the market is constantly facing many risks, the most important of which is exchange rate pressure.
"When the USD continuously hits new peaks, investors are likely to fear that the State Bank will sell foreign currency to intervene and increase interest rates. This will put pressure on the stock market," said Mr. Phuong.
The decline also saw a massive influx of MP orders (buy orders at the lowest selling price or sell immediately at the highest buying price on the market), which, according to this expert, is easy to explain. The stock market has had a long growth cycle with many stocks accumulating very well in market value, helping many investors make huge profits. As soon as the market fluctuates, this group is willing to trade a few percent of profits to "get rid of stocks" because overall, their portfolio performance is still high, meeting expectations.
However, despite facing a strong resistance of 1,300 points and many unfavorable factors, according to analysts, the April 15 decline was "quite unusual".
"The VN-Index suddenly dropped sharply, breaking the mid-term accumulation base and the 1,250 support level, leading to a negative short-term movement. The sharp decline in points on April 15 was unusual," the SHS analysis team commented.
To accurately forecast the short-term trend of VN-Index, FIDT experts believe it is very difficult. He expects the support zone of this index to be in the range of 1,150-1,200 points with many stocks discounted to attractive valuations for long-term investors.
"This adjustment will not be as bad as the beginning of the fourth quarter of last year because the economy has improved and the prospects for corporate profit growth have also improved," he said.
According to Yuanta Securities, the market may continue to decline at the beginning of the session and narrow the decline at the end of the session. At the same time, the VN-Index may test the support zone around 1,200-1,210 points.
"Technical indicators have fallen to near oversold territory, especially sentiment indicators have fallen sharply to overly pessimistic territory, so we expect the market to soon see a recovery in the next few sessions," the analysis team assessed.
Yuanta Securities recommends that short-term investors limit sell-offs at this stage, stop selling and observe the market. At the same time, if investors have a high risk appetite, they can consider buying exploration with a low proportion.
Meanwhile, SHS believes that in the short term, after the sudden sharp drop that broke the support level of 1,250 points and broke the accumulation foundation, the short-term upward momentum of the market has declined sharply. The VN-Index is at risk of returning to a short-term downtrend with new support at around 1,150 points.
In the medium term, the index has fallen back to the wide accumulation channel of 1,150-1,250. The market tends to move sideways for a longer period if the VN-Index moves within this accumulation channel.
"The most positive scenario is that the market will soon regain the 1,250 mark this week. However, if the VN-Index moves within the 1,150-1,250 channel, in the medium term, it will still be an accumulation movement waiting for an opportunity to form an uptrend. The market is not at risk of falling into a new downtrend cycle," the report from SHS wrote.
SHS recommends that short-term investors should not disburse in the coming sessions, even if the VN-Index recovers because the momentum of accumulation and short-term growth is being challenged. Medium- and long-term investors should also not disburse in the current context but should patiently wait for a more reliable accumulation phase.
At nearly 10:00 a.m. on April 16, the stocks of companies operating in Hai Duong with high trading volume on the stock exchange also recorded a decrease. APH (An Phat Holdings Group) recorded the highest decrease of 3.23%. Next was KBC (Kinh Bac Urban Development Corporation) down 2.09%; AAA (An Phat Green Plastics Joint Stock Company) down 0.9%; HPG (Hoa Phat Group) down 0.53%.
TB (according to VnExpress)Source
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