Coffee price today 12/29/2024
World coffee prices fell sharply in the last days of 2024. In particular, the price of robusta coffee for delivery in March 2025 on the London market fell for the second consecutive week, down 49 USD/ton in the week, losing the 5,000 USD mark. The price of arabica coffee on the New York market decreased by 2.35 cents/lb compared to the previous week.
Domestic coffee prices last week lost an average of VND200/kg, closing the week trading in the range of VND120,300 - 121,000/kg.
The reasons for the decline in coffee prices last week included a high US dollar, increased supply from the ongoing harvest in some major producing countries, including Vietnam and Brazil; and arabica coffee inventories on the floor increased to a 2.5-year high of 990,395 bags at the end of last week, recovering strongly from a record low in November 2023.
The Brazilian real remained weak this week, contributing to the decline in coffee prices. A weaker real usually encourages Brazilian coffee producers to increase exports due to higher profits.
Speculators increased profit-taking after a year of "huge" profits, which is also a factor pushing prices on both exchanges down. The strong performance of coffee in 2024 has caused speculators to liquidate contracts to take profits at the end of the year, contributing to the sharp decline in coffee prices over the past two weeks. The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York Arabica coffee market shows that non-commercial speculators reduced their net long positions by 2.78% in the trading week to December 17, recording a new net long position of 38,156 lots.
Additionally, many countries have long holidays this week and next, further softening the consumer market while most coffee-producing countries approach peak harvest time.
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| Domestic coffee prices closed last week's trading session down 1,200 - 1,300 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Coffeeam) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of last week's trading session (December 27), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London for January 2025 delivery decreased by 88 USD, trading at 4,953 USD/ton. The March 2025 delivery decreased by 69 USD, trading at 4,884 USD/ton. The average trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange decreased, with the March 2025 delivery period decreasing by 2 cents, trading at 322.65 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2025 delivery period decreased by 2.1 cents, trading at 317.60 cents/lb. Average trading volume.
Domestic coffee prices closed last week's trading session down 1,200 - 1,300 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
With many factors affecting the decline in coffee prices, according to experts' forecasts, technically, London market prices are expected to continue to decrease next week with the level 1 support price currently at around 4,898 USD/ton and likely to go lower, but it will be difficult to fall beyond the 4,785 USD/ton mark.
The end of the year is typically a time of low trading volume. After a strong rally this year, traders are trying to predict how the market will develop next year.
Market participants are keeping an eye on the coffee harvest in Vietnam, which is currently underway, and awaiting the first reliable estimates of Brazil’s upcoming harvest, which are expected to be released in the coming weeks.
The price gap between London and New York markets calculated on a March 2025 basis has widened, indicating that the pressure on the robusta market has eased significantly and is gradually returning to its true value.
Following the 70% increase in 2023, coffee prices in 2024 continue to experience a big wave in both the domestic and world markets. Coffee prices continuously set new records and are currently nearly double the price at the beginning of the year. The main reason is the decline in supply from major producing countries such as Vietnam and Brazil.
Vietnam's coffee exports in the first 15 days of December reached 48,371 tons, worth 263.6 million USD, down sharply by 51.5% in volume and 6.5% in value compared to the same period last year. Previously, the amount of coffee exported in November was also at its lowest level in the same period in more than 15 years.
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