America in the Race to the White House - Part 4: Fears of Post-Election Instability

Along with the excitement of waiting for the results of this year's US presidential election is the worry about the risk of instability if former President Donald Trump does not accept the final results.

"If the results are announced that Mr. Trump lost, he will reject the results and at the same time try to reverse the results by all means possible. Mr. Trump did that in 2020 and this time is unlikely to be different if he loses again," said an expert at a policy research agency backed by the US Congress . In principle, this expert is not allowed to comment on the election to the media, but he could not help but worry when raising the issue with the writer.

Security forces guard around the White House (photo taken on November 1)

PHOTO: Ngo Minh Tri

The battle that will decide Trump's fate

According to a recent survey published by The New York Times , 80% of voters , from both major parties and independents, said they believe next week's results will be accurate. In contrast, weeks before Election Day, Mr. Trump still questioned the integrity of this election and his loss to President Joe Biden in 2020. Meanwhile, the reality is that for former President Donald Trump, the result of this election is not simply whether he will return to the White House again, but also his "life" in the future. Specifically, former President Trump will have to face one of two scenarios: return to the White House to take power or live under the pressure of criminal litigation, possibly even going to jail.

Trump International Hotel in New York City

PHOTO: Ngo Minh Tri

Trump’s legal troubles could be neatly resolved if he wins. As president, he enjoys broad immunity, with federal criminal cases against him likely to be dismissed, and state criminal cases likely to be put on hold until he leaves office. Civil lawsuits against him could also be put on hold. Conversely, a loss to Vice President Kamala Harris could put Trump at risk of a prison sentence, as a New York court is expected to rule on his sentence later this month. There are also several other criminal trials against him scheduled for 2025. Financially, he has appealed a civil judgment worth nearly half a billion dollars against the former president, and if he fails to return to the White House, the outlook is pretty bleak.

Many worrying prospects

In fact, this year's election has not yet reached "G hour" but has been tense with a series of election-related lawsuits. The Republican National Committee is conducting dozens of lawsuits to "protect the integrity of the election" by "ensuring that ballots are counted properly" and "people do not vote illegally". Most of these lawsuits by the Republicans have failed. But both the Republican Party and Mr. Trump's team have not given up their efforts and are still pursuing many legal moves. Meanwhile, the latest surveys show that neither candidate shows any signs of gaining an advantage over their opponent. Therefore, the possibility that the final result will be that the winner has more votes than the loser will be insignificant. This implies the possibility of endless disputes, paving the way for endless legal conflicts. Not only litigation disputes but also the prospect of violence is a reality that worries many people. An assessment by the Economist Intelligence Unit (part of The Economist magazine group) predicts a 70% chance of political unrest and violence due to the disputed US election results. Similarly, a recent analysis by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR - a US policy research organization) has raised many issues regarding the above concerns. Looking back from before the election, CFR's analysis pointed out that there were hostile actors when there were two failed assassination attempts on Mr. Trump. This means that the US is in an environment of increased threat as it enters election day, with many extremist groups threatening to disrupt the election process. At the same time, violent political rhetoric increases the level of risk. Another potential factor is that some forces outside the US, including extremist groups, may seek to take advantage of this moment of division in the US to incite or launch acts of violence. The CFR analysis also worries that the days (or weeks) after the election could be the most critical, especially if no presidential candidate wins by a landslide. Failure to secure a landslide victory could create the conditions for conspiracy theories to flourish and spread, leading to a significant increase in political unrest or even violence in local communities. In 2020, vote counting centers in Arizona, Philadelphia, and Detroit were targeted by extremist protests or terrorist plots. The US Department of Homeland Security even warned that the “elevated risk” of violence could include extremists attempting to sabotage ballots — an act that could plunge the country into a constitutional crisis. These concerns are not far-fetched given what happened in 2020, which culminated in the January 6, 2021 riot at the US Capitol building.

National Guard on standby in several states Amid the potential for civil unrest over the November 5 presidential election, the National Guard is on standby in several states, including Washington and Oregon, where hundreds of ballots were damaged or destroyed after at least three ballot drop boxes were recently set on fire, according to CNN. The Department of Homeland Security has warned that threats to “election infrastructure” remain high. “The southwest portion of Washington has experienced instances of election-related unrest,” Washington Governor Jay Inslee said, prompting the state’s National Guard to be on standby. In Washington, the National Guard will support law enforcement from November 4 to 7. In Oregon, Governor Tina Kotek recently announced that the National Guard is on standby as political leaders call for protests. "The governor's office is closely monitoring and coordinating with local, state and federal agencies to ensure Oregon voters can safely vote," the statement said.

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