Mr. Trump completely defeated the poll results.

(Dan Tri) - This year's public opinion polls continue to underestimate US presidential candidate Donald Trump, but the final results show that he won surprisingly quickly and resoundingly.

Mr. Trump and First Lady Melania Trump at the election victory announcement ceremony (Source: Reuters).

As of the end of November 6 local time, the results of the US presidential election showed that Mr. Trump won 295 electoral votes, exceeding the minimum 270 votes needed to win the overall victory. His opponent, Ms. Kamala Harris, received 226 votes. Once again, US pollsters predicted the election results incorrectly. This is the third consecutive presidential election in which pollsters have failed to accurately assess voter support for Republican candidate Donald Trump. In all battleground states - where polls just a few days ago showed the two candidates were almost equal in support - Mr. Trump won or is leading by a significant margin. According to Politico , the core problem is that voters who voted for Mr. Trump do not participate in opinion polls. "It is unclear whether pollsters can do anything to address this issue," the magazine wrote. Repeated errors A 2-3 percentage point difference between polls and reality is not unprecedented in American history. The degree of error this time is not as surprising as in 2016 or as large as in 2020. However, what is unusual is that in three consecutive elections, the results tend to overestimate the Democratic Party. In 2016, most experts said that Hillary Clinton would defeat Trump. Then, pollsters adjusted their calculations to include more opinions from voters without college degrees. However, in 2020, they recorded an even larger error (although unlike the previous four years, they still correctly predicted Biden's victory). For example, in the battleground state of Wisconsin, an ABC News/Washington Post survey once said that President Joe Biden was leading Trump by 17 percentage points. In the end, Mr. Biden led Mr. Trump by less than 1 percentage point. By the 2022 midterm elections, Americans’ faith in polling had been somewhat restored. However, the election results this time have caused that faith to continue to be shattered. The New York Times and Siena College, the leading polling units in the United States, also did not evaluate accurately. The final poll results released a few days before the election showed Ms. Harris leading in Nevada and Wisconsin. In fact, Mr. Trump won both Wisconsin and Nevada. The two units also assessed the support for the two candidates as equal in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. In fact, Mr. Trump won all three of these states, thereby winning all seven battleground states that played a decisive role in the race to the White House. Adjusting the status quo When this tactic failed in 2020, a number of pollsters turned to a seemingly simpler tactic: Adjusting their surveys to match the election results. Some weighted each group of voters. They asked additional questions about their preferences in previous elections and gave more weight to the opinions of Trump voters than to other voters in the hope of making their polling data more closely aligned with reality. These approaches did not address the root of the problem, but were merely stopgap solutions. Relying on past preferences “is a crude fix,” Cliff Young, head of US public relations at polling firm Ipsos, told Politico before the election. “But what we really want to do is make up for the Trump voters who didn’t respond and didn’t participate in any polls.” What happened recently showed that this tactic also has many weaknesses. According to FiveThirtyEight, the average of polls shows that Mr. Trump is ahead in only three of the seven battleground states. In fact, Mr. Trump has won or is leading in all seven states. While the adjustments do not produce accurate results, unweighted elections show even larger differences. The Des Moines Register poll released on November 2 surprised when it showed Ms. Harris leading Mr. Trump in Iowa by a margin of 47% to 44%. The final result was a landslide victory for Mr. Trump: He won 56% of the state’s voters, compared to Ms. Harris’s 44%. Ms. Ann Selzer, who conducted the survey, has been considered the top pollster in Iowa for decades. In 2016 and 2020, she was a rare person who accurately assessed Mr. Trump’s influence with polling numbers that were not significantly off from reality. The mistake has damaged her reputation. "Our polling results do not match the final choices Iowa voters made at the ballot box today," Selzer said in a statement after the election. "I will review the data from multiple sources in hopes of understanding why this occurred. I am willing to learn from this."

Majority of Dan Tri readers predict Trump will be re-elected The vast majority of readers who participated in Dan Tri 's poll on the results of the US election correctly predicted that Donald Trump would become the 47th president of the United States. The poll, which opened on August 23 in Dan Tri , attracted nearly 74,000 participants (as of the afternoon of November 6). The results of the poll showed that 79% of readers thought that Trump would be re-elected as US president, while 21% voted for Kamala Harris.

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