Shocking prediction of 330,000 USD for 1 bitcoin: Boom prospect or scam of the century?

(Dan Tri) - The "crazy" prediction of bitcoin at $330,000 has the entire market holding its breath. Will history repeat itself with a super bull cycle, or are investors about to witness another "bubble" burst?

The cryptocurrency market, spearheaded by bitcoin (BTC), has never been short of emotions. While prices are "dancing" around important milestones, investors are once again stirred by shocking price predictions, along with warning signals that cannot be ignored from market and macroeconomic developments.

"Heavenly" forecast

Analyst Sminston With is making headlines with his prediction that the cryptocurrency could peak between $220,000 and $330,000 before the end of 2025. The analysis, shared on the X platform, is based on a 365-day simple moving average (SMA) combined with a “power law” model with an R² = 0.96 accuracy.

According to Sminston With, bitcoin’s price does not move randomly but follows a predictable trend, unlike the exponential growth patterns commonly seen in the stock market. His chart shows that bitcoin’s 365-day SMA typically peaks 2 to 3 times higher than the power law trend line in each cycle. With a reference price of $110,000 (recorded on May 27 in the original analysis), this model opens up a scenario of growth of 100% to 200% from that level.

Notably, Sminston With made a fairly accurate prediction in Q3 2024 that bitcoin would surpass $100,000 by January 2025, when BTC was hovering around $60,000. He also noted that bitcoin remains highly cyclical, challenging the assumption that price movements are becoming “smooth.” This implies that sharp swings are possible in the coming months.

However, Sminston With himself cautions that his analysis is based on data from only four market cycles and should be viewed with caution. He also refers to the “decaying peaks” theory, which suggests that the rally will weaken as the market matures and attracts more participants.

Bitcoin power law model analysis by Sminston With (Source: X).

Short-term risks loom

Despite its promising long-term outlook, the current bitcoin market is facing a number of challenges.

"Whales" start to take profits?

Data from Glassnode shows a noteworthy development: Long-Term Holders (LTHs) moved $4.02 billion worth of BTC. This is the largest volume recorded from groups holding BTC for 1-5 years since February 2025. Notably, the group holding for 3-5 years contributed $2.16 billion. Historically, LTH spending behavior has coincided with price peaks, implying increased profit-taking, especially when bitcoin struggles to hold key support levels.

However, some recent analysis shows that LTH is showing signs of strong accumulation, with 300,000 BTC added in 20 days and spending activity dropping to an 8-month low, signaling confidence in future upside potential. This contradiction shows the complexity of LTH’s behavior and should be closely monitored.

Technical fluctuations warn of correction

Technically, bitcoin has been in a “rise-accumulate-rise” pattern since bottoming at $74,500, with higher highs and higher lows. The current correction appears to be repeating this pattern. However, anonymous trader TXMC warns that Bitcoin is approaching the end of its streak of consecutive weekly gains, based on historical data going back to 2013.

According to Binance Market Data, on May 28, bitcoin briefly fell below $107,000 USDT. Currently, bitcoin is fluctuating around $108,000 - $109,000. Investing.com also noted that bitcoin is trading around its historical high of $112,000 and the market remains positive.

The Fed shows no signs of “easing”

Another headwind comes from the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Markets are now increasingly bearish on the Fed cutting interest rates anytime soon.

The odds of a Fed rate cut before September are falling, according to the FedWatch tool. The Kalshi platform now expects just two rate cuts in all of 2025, down from four as predicted in early April.

Higher interest rates are making risk assets like bitcoin less attractive. However, there is a glimmer of hope: consumer confidence is waning, and if unemployment rises, the Fed may be forced to “pivot” sooner than expected — which would benefit bitcoin.

The market lacks a "push"

Bitcoin breaking through the buy liquidity zone could be the trigger for a deeper decline, according to prominent trader TheKingfisher. On the contrary, a massive short liquidation wall awaits above, starting at $108,900. Trading firm QCP Capital said that bitcoin is still stuck in a trading range around its all-time high and a breakout is unlikely without a clear catalyst.

The market seems to be in a lull, somewhat immune to negative news that might have previously provoked a stronger reaction.

Despite its promising long-term outlook, the current bitcoin market is facing a series of challenges (Photo: Shutterstock).

The opportunity is real, but the risk is not small

The overall picture shows the market torn between long-term optimism and short-term caution.

Sminston With's model and many other experts present a hopeful scenario for 2025. Some forecasts even suggest that BTC could reach $700,000, if institutional capital flows in strongly, especially after the Bitcoin spot ETF event and widespread acceptance from Wall Street.

However, short-term signals, from selling pressure, unclear technical analysis, to macro uncertainty, are all factors that can "pour cold water" on bullish expectations.

In the current unpredictable environment, the most important thing is to keep a cool head, stick to technical indicators, macro signals and the behavior of large investor groups.

Will bitcoin really “moon” as expected, or will it be another epic “dump” like the one seen in previous cycles? Whatever the scenario, the cryptocurrency market will certainly be a land of surprises, and both opportunities and risks always go hand in hand.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/du-bao-soc-330000-usd-cho-1-bitcoin-vien-canh-bung-no-hay-cu-lua-the-ky-20250529100250513.htm