ANTD.VN - The Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) has proposed two new scenarios for Vietnam's economic growth in 2024, with the highest growth rate being 6.48%.
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In 2024, the economy will gradually recover. |
On the morning of January 15, within the framework of the Macroeconomic Reform/Green Growth Program funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, CIEM in collaboration with the German International Cooperation Agency (GIZ) organized the Workshop "Vietnam's Economy in 2023 and Prospects for 2024: Reforms to Accelerate Growth Recovery".
The report “Vietnam’s Economy in 2023 and Outlook for 2024: Reforms to Accelerate Growth Recovery” published at the workshop presented two scenarios for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2024.
Accordingly, Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024 could reach 6.13% in scenario 1, and 6.48% in scenario 2. Along with that, the whole year's exports are forecast to increase by 4.02% in scenario 1 and by 5.19% in scenario 2.
The trade surplus is forecast at USD 5.64 billion and USD 6.26 billion, respectively. Average inflation in 2024 is forecast at 3.94% and 3.72%, respectively.
Presenting the Vietnam Economic Report in 2023 and Prospects for 2024, Mr. Nguyen Anh Duong - Head of the General Research Department - CIEM said: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2023 increased by 5.05%, 1.45 percentage points lower than the set target (6.5%).
Commenting on the economy in 2023, Mr. Nguyen Anh Duong - Head of the General Research Department (CIEM) said that although growth did not reach the target, the economy has improved between quarters and has had a positive recovery. In particular, the number of newly established enterprises and FDI attraction are bright spots.
Forecasting growth in 2024, Dr. Tran Thi Hong Minh - Director of CIEM said that 2024 will still face many difficulties for the Vietnamese economy in particular and the world in general. However, if the quality of institutional reforms is maintained and deepened, the Vietnamese economy can be confident in its ability to achieve positive results in the coming time.
Previously, at the end of 2023, CEIM also proposed 3 GDP growth scenarios, in which the base scenario (likely to happen) had GDP increase by 6%. The high scenario had GDP increase by 6.5% and the low scenario had GDP increase by 5.5%.
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