Young Americans are no longer interested in military careers.

Sky Nisperos's grandfather, a Mexican immigrant, decided to enlist in the US Navy to become a naturalized citizen. Her father, Ernest Nisperos, followed in his footsteps and became a US Air Force officer.

Growing up in a family with a military tradition, Sky dreamed of following in her father's footsteps. "I wanted to be a fighter pilot," the 22-year-old said.

But Ernest, one of Sky's most influential people, is advising his daughter that a military career might not be the right choice for her.

Soldiers take part in a training exercise at Camp Talega, California last year. Photo: US Army — Soldiers take part in a training exercise at Camp Talega, California last year. Photo: *US Army*

Children of military families make up the majority of new recruits who sign on to serve in the U.S. military. But that trend is faltering as young people lose interest in a career in the military, which is bad news for military recruiters.

“Influential family members are no longer advising their children to join the military,” said Mike Mullen, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “Parents, uncles, cousins don’t see it as a good choice anymore.”

The manpower shortage is a long-term problem that, if left unaddressed, could force the US military to cut its force size, a worrying issue given the US’s fierce competition with Russia and China in many areas.

"I've been studying the military recruiting field for the past 15 years and I've never seen it this bad," said a US Defense Department official.

The US Army had a difficult recruiting season last year, failing to meet 25% of its recruitment target. This year, it set a goal of recruiting 65,000 new recruits, but is expected to be short about 15,000.

The US Navy could also fall as low as 10,000 short of its target of nearly 38,000 recruits this year, while the Air Force says it estimates it is about 3,000 short of its target of 27,000 recruits.

The Marine Corps met its goal last year of recruiting 33,000 new recruits and hopes to complete the plan this year, but leaders describe recruiting as a major challenge.

According to Pentagon data, just 9% of young people aged 16-21 said they would consider signing up for military service, down from 13% before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Defense Department officials call the recruiting shortfall a crisis and pledge to meet their goals in the future to prevent the risk of having to cut force structure.

Defense officials admit they have done little to counter “misperceptions” about military jobs, saying many American families now do not see the military as a stepping stone to a career after high school.

Currently, nearly 80% of new US Army recruits have a family member who has served in the military. This is a good thing, said Colonel Mark Crow, director of the Office of Economic and Human Resources Analysis at West Point University, because "the people who know the military best stay."

But relying too heavily on military families could leave them caught off guard when trends change, said Army Secretary Christine Wormuth, who wants to find ways to attract people who don’t have a real connection to the military and make the career choice more appealing.

Ernest Nisperos realized that his long deployments away from home were taking their toll. In 2019, after returning from Afghanistan, he took his family to Disneyland. Under the night sky lit up by fireworks, he felt like he couldn’t fit in with everyone.

Sky worries that her father will end up like his grandfather. After retiring, he had terrifying flashbacks to his time stationed in Ramadi, Iraq, in 2005. He would sometimes scream that he needed to take cover from a nonexistent attack.

Sky's father decided that he did not want his three children to have such a life.

The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 has added to the frustrations some veterans have with the military, including former Navy officer Catalina Gasper.

In July 2019, during her final combat deployment to Afghanistan, she was stationed at a base in Kabul and was attacked by the Taliban. An explosion left Gasper severely injured and she was flown back to the United States for treatment.

According to Gasper, she suffered lasting damage from the traumatic brain injury. She became sensitive to loud sounds and bright lights. She often suffered from dizziness, forgot what she wanted to say, knee pain and a herniated disc.

Gasper said the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021, leaving Kabul in Taliban hands, left veterans like her “gut-wrenching.” “What did all that mean?” she asked.

She claims to be a patriot but is determined to do everything she can to prevent her children from joining the military.

Katherine Kuzminski, director of the Military , Veterans and Society Program at the Center for a New American Security, a bipartisan security think tank based in Washington, said the Covid-19 pandemic has exacerbated the military's recruiting problems.

“We haven’t had recruiters in college or high school for two years,” she said. “They’re the only military connection for a lot of people who don’t have family or friends in the military.”

On the other hand, according to recruiters, salaries and benefits for new recruits are currently not competitive with other professions.

Potential recruits take part in a physical challenge at a US Army promotional event in Indianapolis last October. Photo: WSJ — American youths participate in a physical challenge at a US Army promotional event in Indianapolis last October. Photo: *WSJ*

"All the jobs that young people can get today are offering the same incentives as we do, so it's obviously a tough competition," said Major Marco Irene of the Nevada National Guard.

The lowest-ranking soldiers earn less than $2,000 a month. Even with military-specific benefits, this is still not enough, forcing them to pay some of their own expenses.

The pay is considered “not enough to live on” for families or those living off base. According to federal data, more than 20,000 active-duty service members are on food stamps.

“If the military is too expensive, families will discourage their children from joining the military,” said Kathy Roth-Douquet, executive director of Blue Star Families, a group that advocates for military rights.

The Pentagon says 77 percent of young Americans fail military fitness tests due to physical inadequacy, low test scores, criminal records such as drug use, or other issues. In 2013, about 71 percent of young men failed.

According to the US Army, the pandemic has reduced the scores of those who take the Army entrance exam by 9%. If they do not score enough and do not pass the physical test, they will not be able to become recruits.

To attract more recruits, the U.S. military is stepping up and modernizing its marketing efforts, changing some benefits, and rolling out remedial courses to help underqualified young men improve their skills and become eligible to join the force.

“It hasn’t changed in 15, 20 years,” said Maj. Gen. Alex Fink, head of the Army Public Affairs Office. “We really can’t measure the effectiveness of our advertising.”

Deteriorating barracks, harassment in the military, lack of care for military families and lack of mental health support are deeper problems that soldiers say they face.

“Parents worry if their child joins the military, will they have a good place to live? Will they be sexually harassed or have suicidal thoughts?” Wormuth said.

Defense Ministry officials say the military's overall fighting power is at risk of declining if the manpower crisis is not addressed.

The lack of combat readiness may not be evident when units are not engaged in combat, but the moment a full-scale response is needed, the problem will be exposed, analysts note.

Trying to keep soldiers on active duty after their contracts end is one solution, but it can easily lead to poor performers not being discharged, said Gil Barndollar, a senior fellow at the Center for Leadership Studies at the Catholic University of America.

“If you can’t cut the bottom 10 percent after the initial contract, it’s going to have a long-term impact on the top performers,” he said.

Understaffed units will not be able to respond quickly when needed, according to Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). And units that must call in additional soldiers will not be as effective as units whose members have trained together for months or years.

“What you'll see is a motley crew,” he said.

Wormuth said the Army is “very focused” on increasing its recruitment numbers. But the effort may come too late for Americans about to graduate from high school or college.