Stock market: Rebound from new expectations

Entering 2025, the Government aims to accelerate the economy, regardless of the variables from the world macro. The stock market is forecast to reflect the economic breakthrough and continue to increase after nearly a year of accumulation, creating many potential investment opportunities. That is the opinion of experts at the workshop "Stock Market Prospects 2025 - Rebound from New Expectations" organized by Nhat Viet Securities Company (VFS) on March 10.

According to experts, the stock market will reflect the economic breakthrough and continue to increase after nearly a year of accumulation, creating many potential investment opportunities.

Waiting for a chance to break out

In 2024, Vietnam's economy will remain stable thanks to an expansionary fiscal policy and flexible monetary management, despite pressure from exchange rates and geopolitical conflicts. However, the stock market has not grown as strongly as expected as liquidity gradually narrows and foreign capital flows are cautious. However, the VN-Index still maintains a medium-term sideways-up trend, remaining above the 1,200-point threshold waiting for a breakout opportunity.

Entering 2025, the Government aims to accelerate the economy, regardless of the variables from the world macro. The stock market is expected to reflect the economic breakthrough and continue to increase after nearly a year of accumulation, creating many potential investment opportunities.

Forecasting the development of the economy, economic expert Can Van Luc said that GDP growth in 2025 will reach 8% for the base scenario (in 2024 it will reach 7.09%), higher than the world and regional average thanks to the main driving forces coming from retail sales of goods and consumption increasing by 9-10%, exports increasing by 8-10%, and realized FDI increasing strongly by 10-12%.

Mr. Luc also expects the recovery of private investment, the growth of remittances and the promotion of public investment planning to also contribute to accelerating Vietnam's economy in 2025. With a growing economy, inflation, exchange rates under control, and low interest rates, it creates the premise for the stock market to maintain its upward momentum.

In addition, Mr. Luc noted the main risks and challenges for the Vietnamese economy such as geopolitical tensions, trade wars, private investment and consumption not yet returning to pre-Covid-19 levels, or risks in the corporate bond market that still exist and the real estate market recovering slowly.

Commenting on the real estate market situation, Mr. Luc said that although slow, the recovery has been more evident.

Evaluating the US President's foreign and economic policies, Mr. Luc said that these policies will create opportunities for Vietnam in terms of exports and attracting foreign investment, but also bring challenges, especially the possibility of being subject to a 5.1% reciprocal tax, equivalent to about 4 billion USD that Vietnam must pay more.

Looking at the stock market, Mr. Luc emphasized "new mindset, new opportunities" and at this time, businesses need to make good use of support policies on taxes, fees, interest rates, grasp major trends and improve competitiveness.

VFS experts believe that VN-Index could increase to 1,450 points, corresponding to an expected P/E of 12 times.

Stock market receives positive momentum

Commenting on the influencing factors and investment opportunities in 2025, Mr. Nguyen Minh Hoang - Director of Analysis of Nhat Viet Securities Joint Stock Company said that in 2024, the stock market will not be able to make a strong breakthrough due to many unfavorable factors, also known as "headwinds". However, according to Mr. Hoang, entering 2025, when these barriers gradually weaken, the stock market is forecasted to be boosted by the upgrading process, expected to take place in September 2025, as well as the decline in net selling pressure from foreign investors.

With the above dynamics, Mr. Hoang predicts that the VN-Index may increase to the 1,450 point area, corresponding to an expected P/E of 12 times, when the growth of after-tax profits of listed enterprises on the market may reach 14-16%. Based on the macro outlook and market developments, he believes that real estate and public investment will be two potential stock groups in 2025, when they directly benefit from the economic recovery trend and support policies from the Government.

Commenting on the real estate industry, Ms. Do Hong Van - Head of Data Analysis, FiinGroup Vietnam Joint Stock Company forecasts that the after-tax profit of this industry group in 2025 may continue to recover by about 17.2% over the same period in the base scenario.

According to Ms. Van, the main driving force comes from the improvement in the supply of residential real estate, especially in the mid-range segment, and the return of active real estate transaction demand. With the above prospects and attractive valuations, this industry has recorded signs of attracting cash flow again.

However, Ms. Van noted that some risks still exist, including the pressure of corporate bond maturity, the need for refinancing as well as the trend of net selling of real estate stocks by foreign investors. Ms. Van commented that potential real estate stocks will focus on businesses with clean land funds, transparent legal status and projects expected to be implemented in 2025.