Moving towards the resistance level of 1,100 points

Following the State Bank’s move to lower operating interest rates, a series of commercial banks adjusted their deposit and lending interest rates last week. The downward trend in interest rates has had a positive impact on developments in the stock market.

Specifically, market liquidity continued to improve impressively with the average trading value on the three exchanges increasing sharply by 27.2% compared to the previous week to VND18,509 billion/session. Along with the explosion of liquidity, stock indices had a breakthrough last week.

The VN-Index recorded an increase of 2.6% and temporarily surpassed the long-term trend line MA200 to close the week at 1,090.8 points.

This is the highest point of this index since the beginning of February 2023. The positive growth momentum also spread to the Hanoi Stock Exchange with the HNX-Index increasing sharply by 3.9% to 226.0 points and the UPCoM-Index increasing by 4.2% to 84.0 points.

Mr. Bui Nguyen Khoa - Head of Macro and Market Group, BIDV Securities Company (BSC) and Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh - Head of Macro and Market Strategy Department, Analysis Division, VNDirect Securities Company both share the same opinion that the market will conquer the 1,100 point mark, but there will still be fluctuations, this is an opportunity for investors to restructure their portfolios.

Average market trading value compared to 1 month ago (Source: Fiintrade).

Nguoi Dua Tin: After the State Bank's move to lower operating interest rates , a series of commercial banks have adjusted their deposit and lending interest rates, which had a positive impact on the stock market last week. Will the market be able to break through the 1,100 mark next week?

Mr. Bui Nguyen Khoa: In my opinion, next week, the market can also reach the 1,100 point mark, but there will be fluctuations. Because last week, the market had a pretty good increase, the cash flow progressed strongly when the number of stocks hitting the ceiling was quite large, meaning that a large number of investors have participated in the market.

I also expect strong cash flow from domestic investors to push VN-Index to test the 1,100 point mark, and there will be some fluctuations there, while foreign investors are still continuously net selling.

However, interest rates have cooled down, which is an important support for the stock market. Therefore, in my opinion, after the shock, the market still has a chance to continue.

In addition, foreign investors have continuously withdrawn two net activities, mainly from ETFs and Diamonds, while foreign cash flows are weakening quite clearly. The first quarter business results of this group are also quite bad, in addition, the interest rate gap between VND and USD has widened, showing that foreign interest rates are more attractive than domestic interest rates. Therefore, in my opinion, foreign cash flows will continue to be withdrawn in the coming time.

Mr. Dinh Quanh Hinh: The trading performance on the stock market last week further confirmed the view that domestic cash flow is gradually returning to the stock market in the context of falling interest rates.

The VN-Index has crossed the 1,080-point mark (corresponding to the long-term trend line MA200) with liquidity reaching VND18,000 billion in the trading session last Friday.

In the coming time, the VN-Index may retest the 1,080-point mark and if it successfully maintains above this threshold, the Vietnamese stock market will shift from the previous "sideways trend" to an "upward trend".

The point that did not improve last week was the continued net selling of foreign investors with a value of VND 1,185 billion on the HoSE, down 50% compared to the previous week. Along with that, foreign investors net bought VND 8 billion on the HNX-Index and net sold VND 103 billion on the UPCoM-Index.

The Messenger: How should investors act at this time, and which sectors should they pay special attention to, sir?

Mr. Bui Nguyen Khoa: Basically, the cash flow at this time has increased, so in my opinion, investors can enter, but should wait for a clearer vibration to have a more proactive position. Investors can consider buying at the upcoming low points of the market.

In addition to the stories that have been mentioned since the beginning of the year, such as public investment, agriculture , etc., I think that industries that are sensitive to interest rates such as securities, real estate, etc., although the risks are still relatively high, investors can allocate money because the decrease in interest rates will have a strong impact on the industry's performance.

Mr. Dinh Quanh Hinh: Investors need to closely observe the trading performance of the VN-Index to confirm whether the market has truly entered an uptrend or not.

Investors who have successfully disbursed in previous weeks can continue to hold stocks, while limiting the purchase of stocks that have increased sharply recently because buying at high cost price has potential risks when entering a technical correction phase .

Source: https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/lang-kinh-chung-khoan-56-tien-len-nguong-khang-cu-1100-diem-a611114.html