Will Ukraine's Frontline Collapse in 2024?; Russia Closes in on Ugledar

In a conversation with The Wall Street Journal, Austrian military analyst Franz-Stefan Gadi predicted that Russia's attacks at the current pace will cause part of Ukraine's defenses in the East to collapse as early as 2024.

Chiến sự Nga-Ukraine hôm nay ngày 30/4/2024: Tiền tuyến của Ukraine sẽ sụp đổ trong năm 2024?; Nga áp sát Ugledar

AFU is collapsing tactically as a series of important positions on the front line are either lost or besieged. Photo: Rian

Accordingly, the recent significant losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the west of Avdeevka have exposed Ukraine's weaknesses. The main reasons are pointed out as the interruption of aid supplies from allies for many months and difficulties in general mobilization.

“ The threat of a partial collapse of the Ukrainian frontline by 2024 is real,” military analyst Franz-Stefan Gadi stressed.

According to him, the Ukrainian army is increasingly losing ground and desperately waiting for help from the United States, while Russia has accumulated significant resources and is increasingly successful and continuously gaining control of many settlements along the length of the front.

Previously, the Director of the Institute for Policy Analysis and Management of Ukraine, Ruslan Bortnik, predicted that after losing the settlement of Ochertino, the AFU would find it difficult to stop the Russian Army's advance to the West. According to Bortnik, the loss of Avdeevka is gradually becoming a tactical crisis for the AFU and there is no specific plan to fill the aforementioned tactical "gap".

Meanwhile, former advisor to the President of Ukraine, Oleg Soskin, assessed that the loss of the city of Chasov Yar would lead to the collapse of the entire AFU front.

“ In the context of military defeat and the collapse of the front, General Syrsky admitted that the situation had become very serious and, in general, not good. If the Russian side captured Chasov Yar, the front would certainly collapse, ” said Oleg Soskin.

Accordingly, the Commander-in-Chief of the AFU, General Alexander Syrsky, has lost control of the situation. In addition, Mr. Oleg Soskin added that the new US aid package for Kiev is insignificant and Ukraine continues to face a shortage of soldiers and ammunition.

Many forecasts show that Ukraine could lose control of many territories in 2024. Photo: AP

British military expert Alexander Mercouris also made a similar prediction about the possibility of the Ukrainian defense collapsing and losing control of Chasovoy Yar. Mr. Alexander Mercouris believes that the failure of the AFU in this direction will open up an opportunity for Russia to approach the banks of the Dnieper River.

Regarding the combat situation, the shock units of the Vostok Operational Group began to attack the defensive positions of the AFU near the strategic city of Ugledar in the southern direction of Donetsk.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense , Russian attack groups had no difficulty in repelling Ukrainian defenses with the help of suicide drones. Ugledar has always been an important position south of Donetsk. In the past, Russia has attacked this stronghold many times, but the Ukrainian fortress city has held out. The current situation may change, as Ugledar may be surrounded and gradually fall.

Meanwhile, the Military Summary channel said that the Russian Army is achieving many significant results from the Ochertino salient, forcing the AFU to withdraw from many areas north of Avdeevka to avoid being surrounded.

The Russian thrust was aimed at Novokalinovo, forcing the Ukrainians to retreat to neighboring Arkhangelskoye. However, this was not a suitable defensive point as the AFU failed to create a temporary defensive line to help the retreating units regroup. At the same time, Russian airborne assault units intensified their attacks at several points, including Novoaleksandrovka. If the development was successful, Russia would continue to form a siege with the Ukrainian units that had just retreated from Novokalinovo and Ocheretino.

Along with stepping up the attack, Russian second-line units are also quickly advancing into Ocheretino to clear and create a position to prevent the possibility of a Ukrainian counterattack.

Source