Vietnam has sold almost all its coffee, export prices at record high

Coffee becomes everyone's business

Figures released by the General Department of Customs show that Vietnam's total coffee exports in May reached only 79,358 tons, down sharply by 47.8% compared to the previous month and 47% compared to the same period last year. This figure marks the fourth consecutive month of decline compared to the same period last year and the sixth month since the beginning of the crop year - a sign that domestic coffee inventories are running low.

Farmers in the Central Highlands harvest coffee. The price of raw coffee once reached a historical peak of 134,000 VND/kg. Photo: Dan Viet

In May, Vietnam's average coffee export price reached a record of 4,275 USD/ton, up 13.5% compared to the previous month and up 66.2% compared to May 2023.

In the first 5 months of the year, the export price of coffee reached 3,475 USD/ton, an increase of nearly 50%, equivalent to 1,151 USD/ton compared to the same period last year.

In the first 5 months of the year, Vietnam's coffee exports reached 817,154 tons with a value of more than 2.8 billion USD, down 5.8% in volume compared to the same period in 2023 but up 40.9% in value thanks to unprecedented high prices in the history of coffee exports.

Of which, the EU is the market that buys the most Vietnamese coffee, with 328,130 tons, down 3% compared to the same period last year and accounting for 40.2% of the market share; Japan reached 56,931 tons, up 16.9%; the US reached 50,033 tons, down 22.4%... While major markets reduced purchases, markets in Asia such as Indonesia, the Philippines, China, Thailand, Korea, and Malaysia increased purchases very strongly.

A freelance expert in the coffee industry said that coffee has long been a real financial market, with many traders on the exchange, including those who have nothing to do with coffee, but with the advancement of computing and the convenience of mobile phones, anyone in the world today can be an investor, buying and selling coffee like any other commodity.

"This force is currently very large, contributing to influencing coffee prices and of course they also have to refer to the issue of sunshine, rain, and output in growing areas, especially they also know to pay attention to the upcoming July, which is an exciting month, which can heat up coffee prices if the weather in Brazil this season "cools down" - this expert said.

Vietnam's coffee output lowest in 4 years

Vietnam's coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop year is estimated to decrease by 20% compared to the previous crop year, down to 1.47 million tons, the lowest in 4 years, putting pressure on Robusta supply in the world market, said the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

The cause is drought and pests that have severely affected coffee productivity in many places. For example, in Gia Lai , over 4,800 hectares of coffee are currently infected with mealybugs, many of which are severely infected, concentrated in the communes of Ia Sao, Ia Hrung, Ia Yok,...

Gia Lai's agricultural sector said that due to prolonged hot weather, followed by early season rains, a hot and humid environment was created, stimulating the development of mealybug disease.

Due to the impact of climate change, the dry season in Vietnam has come earlier than usual, and prolonged heat has caused water levels in dams in some provinces to drop rapidly. Concerns that drought could affect crops have caused domestic coffee prices to increase sharply over the past week.

In recent years, low coffee prices have led many farmers to gradually switch to higher-value crops. However, this year's record high coffee prices are expected to be an opportunity to encourage farmers to restore coffee acreage.

Coffee exports are expected to earn about 4.5 - 5 billion USD in 2024. Illustrative photo

According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), coffee prices are currently increasing sharply, so although coffee export volume to the world may decrease, the export value may still break out. Vicofa expects coffee exports in 2024 to earn about 4.5 - 5 billion USD.

Vietnam’s next crop year (2024/2025) will see coffee production of 21.4 to 22.7 million bags, significantly lower than Volcafe’s (part of the Swiss ED & F Man Holdings) preliminary forecast of 24 million bags and much lower than the USDA’s estimate of 27.85 million bags last week.

According to Volcafe, the solution to the current robusta shortage is higher prices, either to pressure demand or to encourage buyers to use more Arabica. This forecast is not good news for coffee enthusiasts, who are already paying more for their daily brew.

Source: https://danviet.vn/viet-nam-da-ban-gan-het-nhan-ca-phe-gia-xuat-khau-cao-ky-luc-20240630143345553.htm