VPI forecasts that gasoline prices for the afternoon of April 17 will be adjusted up by 1.2-1.3%

VPI forecasts that retail gasoline prices in the operating period on April 17 may increase by 310-312 VND, bringing gasoline prices to 24,152 VND/liter (E5 RON 92) and 25,130 VND/liter (RON 95-III).

Buying and selling gasoline at a business location in Hanoi . (Photo: Tran Viet/VNA)

The Vietnam Petroleum Institute's (VPI) Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model shows that in today's operating session, April 17 (one day earlier than the regulation because April 18 coincides with the Hung Kings' Commemoration Day), retail gasoline prices are forecast to increase by 1.2-1.3%, while retail oil prices decrease and the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade may set aside a gasoline price stabilization fund for fuel oil.

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model applying the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and the supervised learning algorithm in Machine Learning of VPI predicts that the retail gasoline price in the operating period on April 17 may increase by 310-312 VND, bringing the gasoline price to 24,152 VND/liter (E5 RON 92) and 25,130 VND/liter (RON 95-III).

However, VPI's model forecasts that retail prices of diesel and kerosene will decrease this period, with diesel prices decreasing by 1.2% to VND21,248/liter and kerosene prices decreasing by 1.3% to VND21,317/liter. Fuel oil prices are forecast to increase slightly by 0.5% to VND17,089/kg and the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade may continue to set aside a fund to stabilize gasoline prices for fuel oil at VND300/kg.

In the world market, world oil prices went down after Iran's military action involving Israel over the weekend caused less damage than expected.

At the close of trading on April 15 (US time), Brent crude oil for June delivery fell 0.4% to $90.10/barrel; US light sweet crude oil (WTI) for May delivery fell 0.3% to $85.41/barrel.

Earlier, oil prices rose to their highest since October on April 12, on expectations of Iranian action. However, the hostilities in the Middle East have so far had little apparent impact on oil supplies.

If the crisis does not escalate to the point of creating a supply disruption, there is a risk of a price drop over time, but only if it becomes clear that Israel has chosen a measured response, said Amrita Sen, founder and research director at Energy Aspects.

As a major producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Iran produces more than 3 million barrels of crude oil per day.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data also capped oil's rally by raising the prospect that interest rates in the world's largest economy will stay higher for longer and reduce demand for oil, said Bob Yawger, head of energy futures at Mizuho Bank.

Rising US oil production is also putting pressure on oil prices. The US Energy Information Administration said output from shale oil producing regions will increase by more than 16,000 barrels per day to 9.86 million barrels per day, the highest level in five months./.

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