Three months of 'pause' in the US-China trade war.

The US-China tariff suspension agreement opens the door to bilateral negotiations for both countries, but there is not enough time to fully resolve the existing trade conflicts.

Báo Tuổi Trẻ•14/05/2025

Trade war - Photo 1.

US stocks rallied following news of a US-China "truce" - Photo: Reuters

China has demonstrated its resilience against the crisis-creating tactics of the US President, forcing Trump to back down after more than a month of imposing triple-digit import tariffs. The recently reached 90-day "break" agreement did not bring tariffs back to pre-trade war levels, but only temporarily reduced them from 145% to 30% for Chinese goods and from 125% to 10% for US goods, with a promise to continue negotiations.

Trump's tactics

President Trump employed crisis-creating tactics to force quick concessions from other countries – an approach that proved successful with Britain when the U.S. agreed to reduce tariffs on London's cars, aluminum, and steel. However, with China – an economy of comparable strength – this tactic did not yield the desired results.

The joint statement between the world's two largest economies emphasized "the importance of a sustainable, long-lasting, and mutually beneficial economic and trade relationship." This contrasts with Trump's earlier remarks that the US "is being plundered by nations near and far" and that Beijing would suffer more in the trade war.

It appears that Trump has been affected by market turmoil, with the prospect of empty shelves in the US soon emerging as data shows a sharp decline in US imports and the risk of renewed inflation. While tariffs are harming China, they are also devastating the US economy.

Matthew Shay from the National Retail Federation called the pause a short break for businesses placing orders for the year-end holiday season. However, restarting the flow of trade will be difficult due to the time required to ship products by sea.

Global consequences

The outcome of the US-China trade war remains uncertain. Experts warn that 90 days is too short a time to achieve significant progress on the long list of trade conflicts between the two countries, including the trade surplus.

The New York Times quoted Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, as saying, "Negotiations like these often take more than a year." Trump has warned that if the two countries don't reach an agreement within the next 90 days, tariffs on Chinese products will rise "significantly higher," though not to 145%.

The US-China deal further clarified Trump's strategy. The Asia Times commented: "It sends a message to world leaders lining up for the White House that a market crash will change Trump's mind immediately."

Many analysts have questioned whether Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and other Asian countries can overcome US tariff policies like China has. However, one thing is certain: things will not return to how they were before Trump took office. He made it clear: "We have many deals coming up. But we always have a base tariff of 10%."

Countries, especially those in Asia, are under pressure from both the US and China. On May 13, Japanese officials said the country would carefully study the US-China and US-UK agreements in preparation for the next round of negotiations with Washington.

Rorry Daniels, executive director of ASPI, assessed the outcome of the US-China negotiations as opening opportunities for other countries: "It's still too early to say how negotiations on a wide range of issues will unfold over the next 90 days, but progress toward addressing shared concerns is a great first step."

This also gives the rest of the world the opportunity to negotiate their own deals with the U.S. without being criticized for choosing sides between Washington and Beijing."

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Source: https://tuoitre.vn/3-thang-giai-lao-thuong-chien-my-trung-20250514090858249.htm