The impact of capital flows and seasonality has a significant impact

Domestic pepper prices today (October 2, 2024) have tended to alternate between slight increases and decreases, reflecting changes in market sentiment and the influence of macroeconomic factors. Although Vietnam's average export pepper price in September 2024 reached its highest level in the past 8 years, creating an optimistic picture for the pepper industry, the domestic market is actually facing a number of challenges.

According to a market survey, today's pepper prices in some key growing areas decreased slightly compared to yesterday. Thereby, bringing the domestic pepper price level to 147,500 VND/kg to 148,000 VND/kg. In the Central Highlands, today's pepper prices in Dak Lak increased slightly by 500 VND/kg to 149,000 VND/kg. Today's pepper prices in Gia Lai decreased by 1,000 VND/kg to 147,000 VND/kg. Today's pepper prices in Dak Nong were at 148,000 VND/kg. In the Southeast region, today's pepper prices in Ba Ria - Vung Tau are currently at 148,000 VND/kg, unchanged from yesterday. In addition, today's pepper prices in Binh Phuoc increased by 1,000 VND/kg to 149,000 VND/kg.

It is forecasted that domestic pepper prices will continue to decrease slightly tomorrow (October 3, 2024), fluctuating between 147,000 - 149,000 VND/kg. This downward trend is believed to be due to capital being attracted to coffee. Robusta coffee prices are increasing, creating great attraction for investors, causing capital to shift from pepper to coffee. Traders and investors are focusing on the coffee market, paying less attention to pepper, leading to reduced consumption demand.

Pepper price forecast tomorrow (October 3, 2024) may continue to decrease slightly.

In addition, the coffee harvest season in Vietnam is coming, expected to take place in the fourth quarter of 2024. Traders need capital to import coffee, so they will liquidate pepper inventories to recover capital. This also creates additional downward pressure on pepper prices.

Domestic trading is currently quite quiet as there is not much supply in the domestic market. The shortage of pepper supply in the domestic market due to reduced harvest output and reduced consumption demand has slowed down trading. The stagnation in trading makes it difficult for pepper prices to increase sharply.

However, the outlook for domestic pepper prices remains positive. Vietnam's average export pepper price in September 2024 reached its highest level in the past 8 years, reflecting the high demand for pepper consumption in the international market. Experts are still optimistic that domestic pepper prices can surpass the threshold of 160,000 VND/kg before entering the new harvest season in Vietnam. This forecast is based on the positive outlook of the international pepper market and increased domestic consumption demand when entering the new harvest season.

Investment capital is an important factor affecting the prices of agricultural products, including pepper. When capital flows into a product, the price of that product will increase due to increased demand. Conversely, when capital flows out of a product, the price will decrease due to decreased demand. Seasonality is also an important factor affecting pepper prices. During the harvest season, pepper supply increases, leading to a decrease in prices. Conversely, when the harvest season ends, supply decreases, and prices increase.

To make effective investment decisions, investors as well as pepper growers need to closely monitor market developments and consult experts.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-tieu-ngay-mai-3102024-anh-huong-cua-dong-von-va-mua-vu-gay-tac-dong-dang-ke-349837.html