Europe is not prepared for Trump's victory

(CLO) European leaders hope that the next White House owner, Donald Trump, will not carry out his previous statements towards the continent.

For Europe, Donald Trump's return to the White House brings two major concerns: tariffs and the end of US military aid to Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan in 2019. Photo: Sputnik

According to a recent paper from the London School of Economics and Political Science, a general 10% tariff on all imports as advocated by candidate Trump would have a negative impact of 0.1% on EU GDP.

But since the US is Germany’s main export market, the impact on Germany would be double that of the bloc as a whole, given that Mr Trump has imposed much larger tariffs on imported cars. With the impacts diverging across the bloc, the EU could struggle to present a united front.

The new president will also continue to push Europe to pay more for its military defense. Most EU members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) met their previous commitment last year to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense. But Mr Trump could remind them that they are still only on track to spend about $400 billion on defense this year, according to NATO estimates, compared with the US total of $755 billion.

Second, Europe is concerned that Ukraine could be left alone in its conflict with Russia. Mr Trump may try to make good on his promise to broker peace in the region after speaking with President Vladimir Putin. But the prospects of immediate success are slim.

The EU has the financial capacity to support Ukraine, which is estimated to need €40 billion a year, or just 0.2% of EU GDP, to keep fighting. But the bloc will be under enormous pressure to replace crucial US military aid.

Moreover, the Russia issue will exacerbate divisions within the EU. Hungary and Slovakia are pro-Putin countries. Rising far-right parties in France and Germany are also pushing for a softer line on Russia.

Ngoc Anh (according to Reuters)

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/chau-au-chua-chuan-bi-cho-chien-thang-cua-ong-trump-post320400.html