There is only a 5% chance that AI will make humans extinct.

Over the past year, we’ve heard a lot about the threat of AI destroying humanity. From AI godfathers to top CEOs, there seems to be a steady stream of warnings that AI will be our enemy rather than our friend.

Industry leaders and AI heavyweights say the rapid development of the technology could have catastrophic consequences for the world . But many AI pioneers say this scenario is designed to distract from the more pressing AI problems that need to be solved today.

There is only a 5% chance that AI will make humans extinct. (Photo: Keymatrixsolutions)

While many AI researchers recognize the potential for existential threats from AI, others don't think such dramatic outcomes are likely, as a large recent survey of AI researchers suggests.

In the new survey, 2,778 AI researchers were asked questions about the societal consequences of AI development, as well as possible timelines for the future of the technology. The results showed that nearly 58% of those surveyed said they considered the threat of human extinction or other extremely bad outcomes from AI technology to be around 5%.

The study also found that AI has a 50% chance of outperforming humans in all tasks by 2047, while AI has a 50% chance of automating all human tasks by 2116. The work was published by researchers and scholars at universities around the world, including Oxford and Bonn in Germany.

Some AI experts, including Google Brain co-founder Andrew Ng and AI industry “godfather” Yann LeCun, have dismissed some of the larger AI-driven doomsday scenarios. LeCun has even accused tech leaders like Sam Altman of having ulterior motives for stoking AI fears.

AI godfather Yann LeCun, chief AI scientist at Meta, has accused some of the most prominent founders in the AI field of “fearmongering” and “corporate lobbying” to serve their own interests. Much of the doomsday rhetoric, he said, is aimed at keeping control of AI in the hands of a few.

Andrew Ng, a professor at Stanford University and co-founder of Google Brain, has a similar view. He told the Australian Financial Review that some companies are exploiting the fear surrounding AI to assert their own market dominance.

HUYNH DUNG (Source: Businessinsider/Newscientist)

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