Humanitarian actions are necessary and important in any conflict. However, they cannot replace a genuine dialogue on the core principles that will shape the future world order. It is encouraging to note that, despite the modest results of this round of talks, neither side has shown any intention of withdrawing from the dialogue process. On the contrary, the delegations have agreed to hold a third round of talks, although the exact date has not yet been determined.
Skeptics may argue that the Istanbul meeting is just another stage in the information and propaganda war between Moscow and Kiev. In this context, each side is trying to position itself as a peace- loving force; at the same time, it is portraying the other as a belligerent “hawk.” Therefore, unilaterally withdrawing from the negotiating table is not only image-damaging, but also has no strategic benefit, even if the prospects of reaching a concrete agreement are currently very low.
On the other hand, the very prospect of another round of meetings in Istanbul may have contributed to the rising tensions on the ground. In an effort to gain the initiative before entering the negotiating table, both sides have stepped up military actions. Russia continues to launch large-scale attacks along the entire front line, while Ukraine has stepped up drone counterattacks deep into Russian territory, including military airfields in at least five different areas.
With the prospect of a clear diplomatic solution still elusive, the question is: what are the parties to the conflict planning?
On the Ukrainian side, Kiev likely still hopes that, in the near future, through joint efforts with European partners, it can influence US President Donald Trump to increase support for Ukraine and restore the transatlantic unity that was maintained under his predecessor Joe Biden.
At the same time, a prolonged conflict could also provide European countries with the opportunity to boost their domestic defense industries and increase support for Kiev. In addition, a new round of EU economic sanctions, especially if backed by the United States, could gradually increase the strategic costs for Russia, thereby creating pressure to change Moscow’s long-term calculus.
For Moscow’s part, the Russian leadership appears to believe that its armed forces hold the strategic initiative on the battlefield. The Kremlin’s assessment is that the West is showing increasing signs of fatigue with the “Ukrainian problem” as time goes on. Targeted attacks on Ukraine’s defense, transportation, and energy infrastructure are seen as causing serious difficulties for Kiev’s ability to maintain its combat capabilities.
From this perspective, Moscow believes that delaying dialogue on the core issues of a peaceful settlement will not weaken Russia’s negotiating position. On the contrary, according to the Kremlin’s calculations, the prolongation of the conflict could force Ukraine to accept tougher conditions in the future.
Many believe that the current course of the conflict seems to be strengthening Moscow’s position more than Kiev’s. The situation on the battlefield is gradually changing in favor of the Russian armed forces. Ukrainian drone attacks, although causing some damage, are not enough to change the overall picture of the military confrontation. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump remains cautious and has not fully supported the strong anti-Russian initiatives being promoted in the US Congress. Efforts to strengthen the European military-industrial complex are assessed to take many years to effectively implement, and the possibility of success remains uncertain. The impact of Western sanctions, although creating certain difficulties for the Russian economy, has so far not had a decisive strategic impact.
In this context, the narrowing of the dialogue between Russia and Ukraine to humanitarian issues could put Kiev at a strategic disadvantage vis-à-vis Moscow. It is to be expected that the third round of talks will broaden the scope of discussion to include more strategic and long-term topics.
This prospect is not far-fetched, especially if the next round of talks is followed by a high-level meeting between the Russian and American leaders. Such a meeting could open up broader discussions on European security beyond the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Even a preliminary framework agreement between Moscow and Washington could become an important catalyst for establishing a more effective dialogue between Russia and Ukraine in the coming period.
Hung Anh (Contributor)
Source: https://baothanhhoa.vn/dam-phan-ngan-chien-su-dai-nga-ukraine-van-cach-xa-hoa-binh-250829.htm
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