According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), at the end of the last trading week, the MXV-Index increased sharply by 3.6%, reaching 2,228 points after 5 consecutive sessions of increase. The investment cash flow returning to the raw material market was clearly evident, especially in the energy group - where all 5 commodities recorded impressive increases of 5 to 6%. The MXV-Index energy index representing price fluctuations in the group increased by more than 6%, becoming the main driving force behind the overall recovery of the entire market.
In contrast to the increase in the energy group, sugar prices in the industrial raw material market continued to fall sharply, marking the fourth consecutive week of decline.
Oil prices rise despite OPEC+ production increase
Buying power clearly dominated the energy market during the trading week from June 2 to 6. Brent crude oil prices increased by 5.88% compared to the previous week, reaching $66.47/barrel, while WTI crude oil increased by 6.23%, reaching $64.58/barrel. This increase occurred despite investors' concerns related to OPEC+'s announcement to continue raising production.
Specifically, at a meeting on May 31 between eight key countries in the alliance, OPEC+ officially announced that it would increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, marking the third consecutive month the group has expanded supply. This move is expected to put pressure on oil prices to fall, due to the risk of oversupply in the global market.
However, market developments did not fully reflect these concerns. In the first trading session of the week, oil prices not only did not fall sharply but also increased by nearly 3% for both main commodities. According to experts' analysis, the reason came from the market's previous expectation that the production increase would be even larger. When the reality did not exceed expectations.
Geopolitical factors and concerns about supply disruptions from Canada and Venezuela also contributed to the buying pressure. Major financial institutions such as Barclays and Goldman Sachs said that OPEC+ could continue to increase production in August, as oil demand tends to increase in the summer, especially in the US market.
Information from the US also supports the upward trend in oil prices. Specifically, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that the country's commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels in the week ending May 30. At the same time, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recorded a sharper decline - up to 4.3 million barrels. Both figures far exceeded the initial market expectations, which were only around 1 million barrels.
In addition, S&P Global has just released a series of important PMI indexes of the US economy in May, showing positive signs of recovery. All three PMI indexes of manufacturing, services and composite sectors increased, in which the PMI of services sector and composite PMI far exceeded market expectations, reflecting a clear improvement in the service sector and the entire economy. At the same time, the US trade balance also had a positive change when the trade deficit in April decreased by more than half compared to the previous month.
Sugar prices continue to fall due to oversupply pressure
On the other hand, industrial raw materials continued to face downward pressure. Sugar prices recorded a fourth consecutive week of decline due to oversupply and falling demand.
Specifically, the price of sugar 11 decreased by 3.28% compared to the end of last week, down to 363 USD/ton, the lowest level in nearly 4 years. The price of white sugar also decreased by 2.28%, closing at 465 USD/ton.
According to the global sugar supply and demand report for the 2025-2026 crop year just released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the global sugar surplus is expected to more than double to 11.4 million tons compared to the previous crop year. This increase mainly comes from stable output in major producing countries such as Brazil, Thailand, China and some other countries. In particular, India's sugar output has grown impressively by 25% thanks to favorable weather conditions and expanded sugarcane planting area.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s sugar exports remained robust, with the number of vessels waiting to load increasing from 85 to 88 in the week ending June 4. However, the country’s total sugar exports in May were only 2.25 million tonnes, down 19.6% from the same period last year. The main reason was the wet weather conditions that lasted from late April to early May, slowing down the harvest and exports.
On the weather front, the market continues to be influenced by the early arrival of the monsoon in India, which has led to more positive expectations for the upcoming sugarcane crop in this country and other Southeast Asian countries. However, the monsoon has been suspended for the past week and is expected to return next week, leaving the sugar market with many unpredictable factors.
Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/dong-tien-dau-tu-tro-lai-thi-truong-hang-hoa-the-gioi/20250609101147897
Comment (0)