In its September global economic outlook report, Fitch forecast the Fed would cut rates by 25 basis points at its September and December meetings, before cutting rates by 125 basis points in 2025 and 75 basis points in 2026.
Coffee price today 9/14/2024
World coffee prices on both London and New York exchanges increased sharply at the end of the week. Robusta coffee prices increased for 5 consecutive sessions this week, setting a new record high. Arabica coffee continued to be supported by the USD.
Domestic coffee prices continued to increase at the end of the week (September 14), trading in the range of 122,600 - 123,100 VND/kg.
Coffee has received a double boost, thanks to the impact of currency and weather in the leading producer, Brazil. In the market, coffee prices continue to remain stable at high levels and the current increase is due to concerns about the weather as well as the continuous decline in the USD index since July 2024. The USD index has continuously decreased due to the news that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has cut interest rates.
The Fed is expected to announce a rate cut at its September 19 meeting next week. Market expectations for a rate cut from the Fed have sent the dollar index tumbling and prompted buying in commodities. The dollar fell in the last trading session after new data once again fueled speculation that the Fed could deliver a 50 basis point rate cut.
Brazil is facing its worst drought since 1981, according to the Cemaden Disaster Monitoring Center. Earlier this week, the Somar Meteorologia meteorological agency also said that the state of Minas Gerais - which accounts for about 30% of Brazil's coffee production - had no rain last week.
According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee exports continued to increase by 12.2% in July and the cumulative 10 months of the 2023-2024 crop year reached 6.9 million tons, up 10.5% over the same period last year. Despite the improvement in coffee supply, prices still increased sharply due to strong demand in Europe. Western roasters rushed to transport coffee to EU ports to stockpile before the anti-deforestation regulations officially apply at the end of December 2024.
 |
| Domestic coffee prices on September 13 increased by 500 - 600 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Cadillaccoffee) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of this week's trading session (September 13), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange continued to increase, with the November 2024 delivery period increasing by 190 USD, trading at 5,267 USD/ton. The January 2025 delivery period increased by 182 USD, trading at 4,998 USD/ton. The average trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased sharply, with the December 2024 delivery term increasing by 10.05 cents, trading at 259.45 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2025 delivery term increased by 9.6 cents, trading at 256.60 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.
Domestic coffee prices on September 13 increased by 500 - 600 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
Coffee markets are being hit by concerns that severe drought conditions earlier this year in Vietnam will damage crops and limit future global robusta output.
According to information from the Import-Export Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade, coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year in Vietnam is expected to decrease sharply, to a 13-year low.
A report from the General Department of Vietnam Customs shows that Vietnam's coffee exports in the first eight months of the year reached 1.05 million tons, worth more than 4 billion USD, down 12.1% in volume and up 35.6% in value over the same period last year.
In addition to weather factors, coffee prices are also supported by the possibility of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Economists commented that the market is focusing on the Fed's interest rate cut after the EU's rate cut to 3.5% and strong expectations for a 0.5% cut.
The balance of bets on the size of the Fed’s rate cut has shifted frequently but was roughly even at the end of the week. The CME FedWatch tool showed expectations for a 50 basis point cut rising to 49% from 28% the day before, with a 51% chance of a 25 basis point cut. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley recently predicted a 50 basis point rate cut was highly likely.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-1492024-gia-ca-phe-co-ho-tro-kep-robusta-tang-khong-ngung-fed-giam-lai-suat-gia-hang-hoa-con-tang-286254.html
Comment (0)