In the third quarter of 2024, the average coffee export price reached 5,266 USD/ton, up 75.2% over the same period last year. In September alone, the average coffee export price reached 5,469 USD/ton - the highest level ever.
Coffee price today 10/18/2024
World coffee prices fell sharply on both the London and New York exchanges. Robusta fell for the third consecutive session.
Domestic coffee prices today, October 18, are trading in the range of 111,700 - 112,300 VND/kg.
The US dollar has reached its highest level in more than 2 months. It was thought that the Fed's interest rate cut would cause the US dollar to depreciate. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have caused speculators to seek the US dollar and gold as safe havens for capital flows.
Along with the rising US dollar, the Brazilian currency has fallen. In addition, rainy weather in Brazil's coffee growing regions has helped the market "breathe easier". The new harvest in Vietnam is also putting downward pressure on the market, as a large amount of goods are about to be released.
The high USD contributed to the decline of coffee on both exchanges following the impact of Europe's proposal to postpone the implementation of the EUDR by one year. In early October, the news that the European Commission (EC) officially postponed the application of the law banning agricultural products related to deforestation into the EU by one year (EUDR) "greatly contributed" to cooling down the hot market due to the trend of hunting for goods before the EUDR took effect, causing the price of robusta, which was at an unprecedented high, to plummet "uncontrollably" due to speculation to sell off goods and stop buying more.
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) said that global green coffee exports increased by 8.8% in August 2024 compared to the same period last year and increased by 10.5% in the first 11 months of the 2023/24 crop year. The above information tends to push coffee prices down.
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on October 17, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London continued to decrease for the third session, the November 2024 delivery period decreased by 174 USD, trading at 4,685 USD/ton. The January 2025 delivery period decreased by 154 USD, trading at 4,598 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange decreased, with the December 2024 delivery period decreasing by 2.85 cents, trading at 255.15 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2025 delivery period decreased by 2.8 cents, trading at 253.85 cents/lb. Trading volume was low on average.
Domestic coffee prices on October 17 continued to decrease by 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
Coffee prices in the third quarter remained high, double that of the same period last year. However, according to experts, coffee prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 may be adjusted down due to additional supply from major coffee growing countries, including Vietnam, which is entering the 2024-2025 harvest.
The 2023/24 crop year ended with a supply-demand balance tilted towards a surplus of 1 million bags. However, the 2024/25 coffee production is forecast to be heavily impacted by extreme weather factors.
Industry insiders believe that from October onwards, prices will be more stable and not fluctuate as strongly as recently, and the market will also stabilize again. However, prices will be set at a new, very high level, around 4,000 USD/ton, equivalent to 90-100 million VND/ton of raw Vietnamese coffee, and will not fall any lower.
Although it has decreased compared to the end of September, the current coffee price is still high. Compared to the beginning of October 2023, the current coffee price in the Central Highlands is nearly 2 times higher. This is the first coffee crop year in Vietnam where the price at the beginning of the crop year is over 100,000 VND/kg. With forecasts of continued decline in coffee output in the 2024/2025 crop year, it is likely that Vietnamese coffee prices will continue to remain high throughout this crop year.
According to the General Department of Customs, in the third quarter, Vietnam's coffee exports reached 212,926 tons, worth 1.12 billion USD, down 12.9% in volume and up 52.6% in value compared to the same period in 2023. At the end of the 2023-2024 crop year (from October last year to September this year), Vietnam exported a total of 1.47 million tons of coffee, down 11.3% compared to the previous crop year.
Harsh climate conditions and shrinking coffee-growing areas in the world’s top robusta supplier will reduce Vietnam’s harvest by about 10% to 15% in the 2023-2024 crop year to around 1.5 million tonnes.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-18102024-gia-ca-phe-dong-loat-do-san-robusta-chiu-suc-ep-tu-nhieu-yeu-to-vao-vu-moi-gia-con-giam-290476.html
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