Coffee prices are soaring across the board as Tet approaches, with robusta prices rising sharply in consecutive days. What are the market concerns?

According to the General Department of Vietnam Customs, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee in the first half of January reached US$5,411 per ton, a 1.3% increase compared to the end of the previous month and a 2.5-fold (150%) increase compared to the same period last year.

Coffee prices today, January 23, 2025

World coffee prices have risen sharply on both the London and New York exchanges. Robusta coffee prices have increased by more than $200. Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange also recovered strongly, with March 2025 delivery rising by 4.29%.

Domestic coffee prices have risen by more than 2,000 VND/kg, currently trading in the high range of 121,500 - 122,500 VND/kg. Observers note that coffee growers in Vietnam have an advantage and are waiting for better prices before selling their supply.

According to industry experts, the upward momentum in coffee prices during the last trading session was due to the two largest coffee-producing countries in the world not rushing to sell their stocks. The appreciation of the Brazilian and Vietnamese currencies against the US dollar has discouraged farmers from selling, while supply remains a concern due to the upcoming long Lunar New Year holiday in Vietnam.

Robusta coffee prices have risen for the fourth consecutive day, reaching their highest level since December 10, 2024, as Vietnamese supply may be disrupted for an extended period ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. The March 2025 robusta contract has increased by a total of $563 per ton over the last four trading sessions. The market is concerned about supply disruptions as Vietnam, the world's largest producer and exporter of robusta coffee, prepares for the long Lunar New Year holiday.

Meanwhile, the price of arabica coffee also rose sharply after the Brazilian research organization Cepea reported that many coffee farmers in Brazil are delaying sales in the expectation of even higher prices.

The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) also stated that the less optimistic supply outlook and the weakening USD/BRL exchange rate continue to be the main reasons driving up robusta coffee prices recently.

The strengthening of the Brazilian Real also supported coffee prices in the last trading session, with the Real rising to its highest level in six weeks against the US dollar. A stronger Real reduces the incentive for Brazilian coffee producers to export.

Another positive factor for coffee prices is the move by Conab, the Brazilian government 's agricultural forecasting agency, to cut its 2024 Brazilian coffee production estimate to 54.2 million bags, down 1.1% from its September forecast of 54.8 million bags. Arabica coffee is also being supported by below-average rainfall in Brazil. According to a report from the Brazilian Meteorological Agency Somar Meteorologia, Brazil's largest arabica coffee growing region, Minas Gerais, received only 29.6 mm of rain last week, equivalent to 53% of the historical average.

Domestic coffee prices on January 22nd surged by 2,000-2,200 VND in some key purchasing areas. (Source: PngTree)

According to World & Vietnam , at the close of trading on January 22nd, robusta coffee prices on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for the March 2025 delivery contract continued to rise sharply by $189, trading at $5,452 per ton. The May 2025 delivery contract increased by $171, trading at $5,388 per ton. Average trading volume was high.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange rose sharply, with the March 2025 contract increasing by 14.05 cents to trade at 341.85 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2025 contract rose by 13.90 cents to trade at 337.85 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.

Domestic coffee prices on January 22nd increased sharply by 2,000 - 2,200 VND in some key purchasing areas. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	25,030	- 50
DAK LAK	122,200	+ 2,200
LAM DONG	121,500	+ 2,200
GIA LAI	122,200	+ 2,200
DAK NONG	122,500	+ 2,000

(Source: giacaphe.com)

According to the General Department of Vietnam Customs, Vietnam's coffee exports in the first 15 days of January reached 73,818 tons, worth $399.4 million, a decrease of 4.8% in volume and 3.6% in value compared to the second half of the previous month, and a decrease of 29% in volume but an increase of 77.4% in value compared to the same period last year.

The average export price of Vietnamese coffee in the first half of January reached US$5,411 per ton, an increase of 1.3% compared to the end of the previous month and a 2.5-fold increase (150%) compared to the same period last year.

Thus, after a record bumper crop in 2024, coffee – Vietnam's flagship crop – has already generated nearly 10 trillion VND in export revenue in the first 15 days of 2025.

After soaring last year, coffee prices in Vietnam's domestic market saw a downward correction in early 2025, coinciding with the Lunar New Year (Year of the Snake). Dry weather conditions in Brazil continued to support the upward trend in arabica coffee prices, while improved supply in Vietnam put downward pressure on robusta coffee prices.

Rabobank's analysis predicts that cocoa and robusta coffee prices will reach record highs in 2024, while arabica will hit its highest level since 1977 due to unfavorable weather conditions and tight supply in key producing regions. Rabobank researchers suggest that these commodities are trading significantly above production costs, leading to increased production and decreased demand this year. Furthermore, the EU's temporary suspension of the implementation of the Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is expected to bring stability to the market.

Meanwhile, the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) forecasts that world coffee prices will adjust downwards in 2025 due to the recovery of supply. Nevertheless, Vietnam's coffee exports will continue to grow as supply increases and consumer demand worldwide rises.

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global coffee production in the 2024-2025 crop year is expected to recover thanks to increased production in Vietnam and Indonesia. In addition, the market still expects Brazil's coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop year to recover as rainfall improves in major coffee-growing regions. At the same time, demand for coffee imports from European countries is expected to temporarily ease as the implementation of the EUDR (Engineering, Procurement, and Trade Regulation) is postponed until the end of 2025.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-2312025-gia-ca-phe-dong-loat-thang-hoa-ngay-can-tet-robusta-tang-manh-lien-tiep-thi-truong-dang-lo-ngai-gi-301930.html