Robusta coffee prices hit two-week high, dollar falls, supply remains tight

In the third quarter of 2023, Vietnam exported 259,000 tons of coffee, worth 774 million USD, down 20.8% in volume and up 0.4% in value over the same period last year.

World coffee prices, robusta coffee prices reached a 2-week high, while arabica coffee prices reached a nearly 1-month high amid concerns over supply shortages. Speculators on both exchanges increased their purchases, helping the market to have a good trading session. The falling USD is also helping coffee prices on both exchanges recover.

On the supply side, yesterday, Arabica coffee prices, which were under buying pressure, eased slightly after the domestic Brazilian market resumed operations after a long holiday. However, the strong exchange rate of the Brazilian Real against the US dollar will cause the country to reduce its coffee export sales. The weather forecast for this week in major coffee growing regions is dry.

While robusta coffee prices are currently supported by information about heavy rains in the Central Highlands coffee region of Vietnam, which will slow down the new coffee harvest, ICE London inventories continue to decline, despite a 329.3% increase in Conilon robusta coffee exports from Brazil in the first 3 months of the new crop year 2023/2024.

Giá cà phê hôm nay 30/4: (Nguồn: Foodyoushouldtry)

Domestic coffee prices today October 18 increased by 400 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Foodyoushouldtry)

At the end of the trading session on October 17, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for November 2023 delivery continued to increase slightly by 16 USD, trading at 2,409 USD/ton. The January 2024 delivery period increased by 24 USD, trading at 2,320 USD/ton. Average trading volume.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange for December 2023 delivery increased by 2.9 cents, trading at 157.05 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2024 delivery price increased by 2 cents, trading at 156.70 cents/lb. Trading volume increased.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures - London exchange opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 the following day, Vietnam time. Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US exchange (New York exchange) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 the following day, Vietnam time.

Domestic coffee prices today October 18 increased by 400 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.

Average price	Change
USD/VND exchange rate	24,298	+ 38
DAK LAK	64,200	+ 400
LAM DONG	63,700	+ 400
GIA LAI	64,000	+ 400
DAK NONG	64,200	+ 400

Unit: VND/kg.

(Source: Giacaphe.com)

In the first 9 months, Vietnam's coffee exports are estimated at 1.266 million tons, worth 3.16 billion USD, down 7.3% in volume, but up 1.9% in value over the same period last year.

Vietnam’s coffee output for the next crop is also not optimistic according to initial reports. The early harvest has already taken place in some localities. Therefore, the current robusta supply is still tight even though Brazil has increased exports of this coffee product recently.

Extreme weather events caused by this year's El Niño could impact local economies and coffee prices, The Washington Post reported.

This extreme weather phenomenon alters normal rainfall and temperature patterns and can create severe weather conditions in many parts of the world, including the United States. These extreme weather patterns can cause flooding in some areas and drought in others, which can damage food crops, including those needed for the world's coffee production.

This year’s El Niño threatens to affect the weather in some of the world’s most important coffee-producing countries, including Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia. If that happens, coffee lovers could have to pay more for their favorite beverage.

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