After surging past 1,240 points in the first session of the week, the VN-Index witnessed increased selling pressure in the following two sessions amid the US-China trade tensions showing no signs of cooling down. The VN-Index briefly came close to the support level of 1,200 points before bottom-fishing demand appeared, helping the index recover in the last two sessions of the week.
At the end of the week, the VN-Index reached 1,219 points, down 3 points compared to the previous weekend. The market's correction after reaching the resistance zone of 1,240 points is a healthy point to absorb some of the cheap bottom-fishing goods.
Mr. Dinh Viet Bach, analyst at Pinetree Securities Company, assessed that VN-Index traded relatively stable last week as concerns related to tariff tensions somewhat cooled down, while the first quarter 2025 business results announcement season began. Market liquidity decreased slightly, fluctuating around an average of VND20,000 billion/session, showing that investor sentiment remained somewhat cautious. Except for the sudden transactions in Vingroup shares, pressure from foreign investors gradually subsided. However, cash flow was generally highly selective and focused on a few individual stocks, reflecting a clear differentiation between industry groups.
Entering the new trading week, experts from Pinetree Securities believe that the market will likely continue to be unpredictable as it is affected by many uncertain factors. First of all, the focus will still be on developments related to US-China trade, especially in the context of Donald Trump's tough statements on tariffs that are creating a lot of speculation among global investors. Any move on tax or trade policies from the two major economies can directly affect domestic market sentiment.
In addition, internal factors are also starting to play a bigger role as a series of businesses prepare to announce their business results for the first quarter of 2025. Therefore, according to Mr. Dinh Viet Bach, cash flow is likely to be strongly differentiated by industry group and specific stocks, especially stocks with good fundamentals, maintaining positive profit growth rates or benefiting from the economic recovery cycle.
Last week, the banking and securities groups continued to lead the cash flow, and this trend may continue, thanks to expectations of improved profits as well as increased market liquidity. However, the market is currently still in an "information-sensitive" zone, where psychological factors can easily overwhelm fundamental factors in the short term. This may cause the VN-Index to continue to fluctuate strongly around the resistance zone of 1,230-1,235 points - where there is some profit-taking pressure.
Experts from Pinetree Securities believe that the market may return to the resistance zone of 1,265 points in a positive scenario . However, there is a high possibility of a defensive scenario as uncertain macro information factors are still dominating market sentiment. Currently, the closest support level of VN-Index is 1,200 points. If this zone is broken, VN-Index will return to fill the gap at 1,170 points.
According to Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macro and Market Strategy, VNDIRECT Securities Joint Stock Company, the market is gradually forming a supply-demand balance zone at 1,200-1,250 points after a period of strong price fluctuations in the past time. Entering the second half of April, the market will shift its attention to the picture of first-quarter business results. In the context that the market has returned to the "cheap valuation" zone, positive information about business results can be a catalyst to help improve investor sentiment as well as the stock valuation level. Enterprises expected to have positive results will attract cash flow from the market.
With recent positive credit growth figures and a cooling trend in input interest rates, the banking sector is expected to record positive growth in the first quarter of this year. Along with that, growth in the consumer and retail sectors is expected to begin to accelerate as domestic purchasing power shows clear signs of improvement thanks to improved incomes and the Government's stimulus policies. Other sectors expected to have positive business results include livestock, aquaculture and electricity.
Regarding trading strategies, investors can take advantage of the market's accumulation phase to restructure their investment portfolio, consider increasing the proportion of stocks during market corrections to the support zone around 1,200 points, and prioritize basic stocks in industries with positive first-quarter business results prospects such as banking, retail, livestock, aquaculture, and electricity. However, the use of leverage is still not encouraged at the present time when tariff risks still exist and the market has not yet re-established a sustainable upward trend.
Experts from HSC Securities Company believe that the market is still under a lot of pressure when the VN-Index is trading around 1,220 points. When this index slipped from the psychological support level of 1,200 points, buying power appeared but was still at a low level. The scenario of the market retesting the 1,200 point mark also needs to be taken into account , in which case the solid technical support area for the VN-Index could be at 1,180-1,200 points.
The general strategy that investors should consider is to screen for stocks that are less likely to be affected by tariff policies or businesses with good internal strength and sustainable growth potential. The strategy of allocating a reasonable portfolio ratio between stocks and cash should be prioritized during this period.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-21-264-tim-kiem-doanh-nghiep-co-ket-qua-kinh-doanh-tich-cuc-d269728.html
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