Hoping for a happy ending to the difficult shrimp season

There are still nearly 3 months left for the 2025 brackish water shrimp season to end, but according to many businesses, the 2025 export turnover target of 3.8-4 billion USD is within reach and if things go better, it is likely that the export turnover will slightly exceed this target. As for the shrimp farming output target, although there is a slight increase, to have a perfect ending as expected, a strong acceleration is needed in the remaining time of 2025.

Breaded shrimp and fried shrimp products have high added value and are not subject to anti-dumping tax, which will be an advantage, helping the Vietnamese shrimp industry maintain its position in the US market.

Exports will reach their destination.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), despite the extremely difficult market situation, after the first 9 months of the year, shrimp exports still increased by 20.3% over the same period, with an estimated turnover of 3.38 billion USD. However, according to businesses, the US market is expected to end after October 15 to avoid the risk of anti-dumping tax (AD), so export turnover in the last 3 months of the year will decrease sharply compared to the first quarters of the year. Mr. Ho Quoc Luc, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Sao Ta Food Joint Stock Company, commented: "Although shrimp exports in the fourth quarter will likely decrease sharply, the planned shrimp export target of 3.8-4 billion USD in 2025 is still achieved because in the first 9 months of the year, export turnover grew quite strongly".

Regarding anti-dumping tax, according to Mr. Ho Quoc Luc, although the preliminary tax rate for Vietnamese shrimp is very high, not all Vietnamese shrimp products are subject to this tax. There are still shrimp product segments that are not subject to anti-dumping tax such as fried shrimp, breaded shrimp, etc. While this is the strength of Vietnamese shrimp enterprises, enterprises can take advantage of this to export goods to the US. Mr. Vo Van Phuc, General Director of Vietnam Clean Seafood Joint Stock Company (Vinacleanfood), said that shrimp exports have increased quite strongly in the past 9 months, but difficulties in taxes, trade barriers, and competition still exist, so exports in the fourth quarter of this year will certainly not be as high as in the first quarters of the year. However, because the supply of raw materials from now until the end of the year is not much, shrimp prices will be difficult to decrease. Both Mr. Vo Van Phuc and shrimp businesses have the same opinion: "Export sales will reach, or even exceed, the plan, but profit targets are still uncertain."

Production maintains growth momentum

In the key shrimp farming area of ​​the Mekong Delta, at the end of the third quarter, according to a report from the Department of Agriculture of Ca Mau province, the whole province has stocked nearly 418,000 hectares, with an estimated shrimp harvest of over 379,000 tons. Can Tho city has also stocked about 49,000 hectares in the first 9 months of the year and the shrimp harvest is estimated at 167,600 tons. An Giang province, although the majority of the area is shrimp - rice, has a shrimp harvest after 9 months of 134,556 tons. The shrimp farming situation in Vinh Long province, according to the report, also achieved positive results with the total shrimp output of the province in the first 9 months of the year estimated at 206,662 tons, an increase of 10.71% over the same period.

A report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment shows that the output of white-leg shrimp in the first 9 months of 2025 is estimated at 719,700 tons, up 7.1% over the same period last year. The output of black tiger shrimp in the first 9 months of 2025 is estimated at 212,300 tons, up 3.5%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, the growth in shrimp output is mainly due to the strong transition to industrial farming models, super-intensive farming and high-tech application. These models help to better control the farming environment, limit diseases, increase productivity and product quality, and reduce costs through the application of automatic feeding systems, environmental monitoring with sensors and circular processing.

Waiting for a breakthrough at the end of the year

Although the export turnover and farmed shrimp output have both grown to a certain extent, to complete the annual plan target, the shrimp industry still needs a strong breakthrough in the remaining months, especially in the output target. Accordingly, to achieve the target of 1.3-1.4 million tons of brackish water shrimp according to the plan of the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, on average each remaining month of 2025 must have a shrimp harvest output of over 100,000 tons and the shrimp harvest source mainly comes from the Mekong Delta region. Meanwhile, from now until the end of the year, most environmental, weather, and disease factors... tend to be unfavorable for the farming industry, so all expectations are placed on two main models: super-intensive and intensive whiteleg shrimp farming, with the driving force coming from shrimp prices remaining at a high level.

The fact that shrimp prices remain high is considered an important "lifebuoy" to help farmers have more motivation to take care of the remaining shrimp areas as well as to carry out new farming, and the functional sector also has the basis to make necessary recommendations, helping farmers achieve higher success. Without going too far, if the area and output of intensive and super-intensive whiteleg shrimp farming in Can Tho City and Ca Mau Province meet the planned targets, the possibility of achieving the annual shrimp farming output target of the entire industry will be very high, because these are the two localities with shrimp output accounting for more than 50% of the country's shrimp output.

Regarding exports, although the ability to complete the turnover target of 3.8-4 billion USD is within reach, according to VASEP, the road ahead is still bumpy when barriers such as anti-dumping tax, countervailing tax, anti-subsidy tax (CVD), competition... still exist, which the shrimp industry in particular and Vietnam's seafood industry in general still need to overcome not only in the last months of 2025 but also in the first months of 2026. Therefore, VASEP recommends that businesses need to closely monitor market developments and trade policies to promptly adjust strategies and avoid risks when new barriers appear. Restructure the export market in the direction of both maintaining traditional markets such as the US, EU, Japan, and promoting the exploitation of opportunities in ASEAN markets, the Middle East and less competitive niche markets. Along with that, it is also necessary to promote innovation and apply technology in farming and processing, while enhancing the national brand through high-end culinary channels and e-commerce.

Article and photos: HOANG NHA

Source: https://baocantho.com.vn/ky-vong-doan-ket-dep-cho-mua-tom-kho-a193276.html