Why Russia and Ukraine are fighting fiercely over Bakhmut

Ukrainian soldiers fire an M119 howitzer at the front line near the city of Bakhmut on March 10 (Photo: Reuters).

So far, more than 90% of residents have been evacuated from Bahkmut, most of which lies in ruins. The death toll from the fighting between Russia and Ukraine continues to rise, but both sides are still fighting for this small town of 41 square kilometers.

After nearly eight months in the trenches, Ukrainian forces are surrounded on three sides, Kiev’s supply lines are fraying as Moscow controls nearly 50 percent of Bakhmut. However, Ukraine has pledged to double the city’s defenses even as both sides suffer heavy casualties.

Some leading Western military analysts say it might be reasonable for Ukrainian forces to return to a new fortified defense line, but Kiev shows no signs of doing so.

President Volodymr Zelensky has described the "Bakhmut fortress" as a symbol of defiance that is draining Russia's military resources.

For Moscow, the fall of the city, which it has called Artyomovsk since Soviet times, would be its biggest victory since mid-2022 and would help bolster its military campaign in Ukraine.

Bakhmut's position

Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine is becoming a hot spot of war (Graphic: Dallas News).

The city is in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast, part of the largely Russian-speaking industrialized Donbass region that Moscow wants to annex as it launches a special military operation.

The pre-war population was 70,000-80,000 people, but Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said there are now fewer than 4,000 people living here, including 38 children.

The battle for Bakhmut was fought from trenches with relentless artillery and rocket attacks on a mine-strewn battlefield. Military commanders on both sides described Bakhmut as a "meat grinder".

Images of the battlefield with corpses from both sides have appeared on social media, and the boss of the Wagner private military group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has published a photo of his group's fighters killed on the battlefield.

Casualty figures have not yet been released, but US officials estimate that thousands of Russian soldiers – many of them prisoners recruited by Wagner – have been killed. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are also believed to have died.

On March 12, President Zelensky said that the Ukrainian military had eliminated more than 1,100 Russian soldiers from combat near Bakhmut in the past week and wounded more than 1,500. That same day, the Russian Defense Ministry said its forces had killed more than 220 Ukrainian soldiers in eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours.

There is currently no source that can verify the battlefield casualty figures given by both sides.

Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak said Kiev was fighting in Bakhmut because the situation there was helping it to pin down the best Russian forces, as well as weaken its opponents ahead of a planned Ukrainian spring counteroffensive.

Polish military expert Konrad Muzyka, who recently visited the Bakhmut area with colleagues, believes that taking control of the city no longer makes military sense.

“The decision to defend Bakhmut is now a political decision, not a military one,” Muzyka said, adding that the scale and cost of the damage to Ukraine now outweighed the benefits of keeping control of the city.

According to expert Rob Lee, although there are still good reasons for Ukraine to continue defending Bakhmut, the risk of causing heavier losses to Russia has weakened after Moscow captured the northern flank last month.

Russia's Reason

As a regional transport and logistics hub, capturing Bakhmut would benefit Russia greatly, although that depends on how much of the city's infrastructure is destroyed.

More importantly, this would give Russia a springboard to take control of two larger cities in the Donetsk region: Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Both are within range of Russian artillery. And Moscow needs control of these two strategic cities to complete what it calls the “liberation of the Donetsk People’s Republic.”

In a statement earlier this month, President Zelensky said he feared that Russian forces would have “an open road” to the two cities after taking control of Bakhmut. Therefore, Mr. Zelensky ordered the Bakhmut stronghold to be held, calling it a tactical decision.

The town of Chasiv Yar west of Bakhmut is likely to be the next target for Russian attacks, although it is on higher ground and Ukrainian forces are said to have built defensive fortifications nearby.

Western analysts and diplomats say Russian forces could quickly capitalize on their control of Bakhmut after fighting there for so long — shelling the city since May and launching a ground offensive in August 2022. For Russia, capturing Bakhmut would be of strategic importance on the battlefield after days of fierce fighting.

Psychological warfare

For Ukraine, the loss of Bakhmut could sap morale, even if, as its allies say, it may not make much strategic difference.

Both Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg have described Bakhmut's fall as symbolic. Western military experts agree.

But in a sign of Bakhmut's importance to Kiev, President Zelensky presented the US Congress with a battle flag signed by the city's defenders when he visited the country in December 2022.

Kiev's holding on to the city helps maintain support from Western countries, proving that it is making a difference, according to Michael Kofman, a Russian military expert at the US-based think tank CAN.

If the city falls, Ukraine can say that it has held Russian forces back for too long and paid such a high price for Bakhmut. And Kiev also wants to warn Russia that if it tries to seize more territory, it will pay a similarly high price.

In addition, according to experts, control of the city will be an incentive for the Wagner private military group and its founder Prigozhin.

Some Western military experts believe that Ukraine's goal is to destroy the Wagner group and that this force will not be able to quickly replenish its ranks to be able to participate in fighting elsewhere.

“If Bakhmut is captured, Wagner will be significantly weakened and unable to sustain attacks on Ukrainian positions,” said Muzyka, the Polish analyst.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/ly-do-nga-va-ukraine-dang-chien-dau-khoc-liet-vi-bakhmut-20230316085656854.htm