The $25 billion e-commerce pie in Vietnam: Sweet and dramatic

(Dan Tri) - Despite challenges in spending and policies to restructure the market, e-commerce is still a fertile "playground" in Vietnam, expected to reach 100 billion USD by 2030.

The report “The Next Leap for E-Commerce in Southeast Asia” by Blackbox Research published in October 2025 shows that Vietnam is currently leading Southeast Asia in terms of e-commerce growth rate. This result reflects the dynamic entrepreneurial spirit, increasingly perfect logistics capacity and flexible adaptability of businesses in the digital environment.

In a sharing at the Vietnam International Sourcing 2025 Exhibition series last May, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said that the Vietnamese e-commerce market will reach a scale of over 25 billion USD in 2024. This figure grew 20% over the same period, accounting for about 10% of the total retail sales and consumer services nationwide.

According to data from the Ministry, the growth rate of Vietnam's trade reached 20%. Thanks to that, Vietnam holds the position of the top 3 largest e-commerce markets in Southeast Asia, after Indonesia (65 billion USD) and Thailand (26 billion USD).

In fact, the Vietnamese e-commerce market has been accelerating strongly in the past 5 years. Even in 2023, despite the economic difficulties, this sector still maintains a high growth rate. According to estimates by the Vietnam E-commerce Association (VECOM), the market size in 2023 has reached 25 billion USD, recording a growth rate of over 25% compared to 2022.

Correspondingly, the proportion of e-commerce compared to total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue will grow at the same time, from about 8.5% in 2022 to about 10% in 2023 and is estimated to reach 12% in 2024.

Notably, the growth rate of e-commerce (over 25% in 2023) is significantly higher than the overall growth rate of the economy (GDP increased by 5.1%) and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods and services (increased by 9.6%) in the same year.

Experts say this difference is a clear indicator that e-commerce is not only growing naturally with the economy, but is also undergoing a "major shift" in distribution channels. E-commerce is actively taking market share from traditional retail channels, instead of simply creating new consumer demand.

By 2025, VECOM predicts the market will reach nearly 40 billion USD, while the Ministry of Industry and Trade gives the figure of 39 billion USD.

In his role as an authority, Deputy Director of the Department of Industry and Trade Le Huynh Minh Tu also made the statement at a recent event in Ho Chi Minh City. He said that in the context of the world entering the digital economic era, digital transformation is no longer an option, but an inevitable requirement for sustainable development.

Mr. Nguyen Tuan Quynh - Vice President of Ho Chi Minh City Young Entrepreneurs Association - at an event also said that investing in e-commerce is the current trend. He strongly affirmed the role of digital transformation in the journey of bringing Vietnamese products closer to consumers.

The usurpation of the "big guy"

With rapid growth, Vietnamese e-commerce is witnessing a dramatic battle for market share, from Sendo, Tiki, Lazada, Shopee to TikTok Shop and the "announcement" of Temu in October last year. In particular, from 2024 to now is the period witnessing the spectacular rise of TikTok Shop, completely changing the competitive landscape.

According to the Revenue Report of E-commerce Platforms in the first half of this year published by a unit specializing in e-commerce statistics, the total transaction value (GMV) of the four major platforms including Shopee, TikTok Shop, Lazada and Tiki reached 222,100 billion VND, an increase of 23% over the same period last year. Of which, TikTok Shop recorded the highest growth rate, with GMV increasing by 148% - a figure that even exceeded the figure of 99% for the whole year 2024.

The platform's market share also increased from 32.5% at the end of 2024 to 42%, significantly narrowing the gap with Shopee - currently leading with 55% market share.

The rise of TikTok Shop is not simply a change in market share numbers, but a confirmation of a fundamental business model shift in the e-commerce industry. TikTok Shop’s success does not come from copying the traditional “marketplace” model, which focuses on search engines and product catalog pages. Instead, the platform succeeds through the “shoppertainment” model – the seamless combination of entertainment and shopping.

"Shoppertainment" trend - Lazada and Shopee are no longer on the sidelines

By integrating the shopping experience right into the stream of engaging short video content and "livestreams", TikTok has significantly shortened the consumer journey from "discovery" to "purchase decision".

Consumers, especially Gen Z, no longer actively search for a specific product. Instead, they discover products in a natural and fun way through creative content from sellers and influencers.

Accordingly, the battle in the e-commerce market is now not only a battle of price, promotion or product variety. It has become a battle for users’ attention and time, where e-commerce platforms are forced to transform themselves into content and entertainment platforms to survive and develop.

Not out of the race, Lazada and Shopee are also actively participating in the "shoppertainment" trend. In the latest move, Shopee is known to have joined hands with Meta, according to which Facebook allows Shopee content creators to attach product links and sell directly on social network accounts.

The floors change policies, increase fees, taxes... sellers and agents cry out

Despite such growth, in the short term, the e-commerce market is facing challenges as a series of new policies are being implemented. Not to mention, consumers are increasingly practical, price-sensitive, and tighten spending in the context of inflation.

According to the survey, 69% of experts believe that new tax regulations, especially the VAT deduction policy, are creating short-term difficulties for small online sellers. However, 85% of experts still expressed strong belief in Vietnam's long-term potential, emphasizing that the spirit of innovation and the ability of businesses to adapt quickly are the key drivers helping Vietnam maintain its growth momentum.

According to international experts, Vietnam outperforms many countries in the region in factors that promote e-commerce such as logistics infrastructure (84%), platform competitiveness (77%) and user experience innovation (70%). Only 39% believe that Vietnam has a flexible legal environment, showing that policies still need to be improved to keep up with the market's development speed.

Mr. David Black - Founder and CEO of Blackbox Research, a research company headquartered in Singapore specializing in consumer behavior and trade development trends, pointed out that the paradox between optimism and policy barriers still exists. Adjusting the legal framework, especially in the field of tax and customs, although causing short-term pressure, is expected to increase transparency and create a stable environment for sustainable e-commerce development.

Not to mention, about 80% of Vietnam’s e-commerce revenue is concentrated in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, showing that the digital gap between urban and rural areas is still large. In addition, barriers to cross-border trade still exist when customs, tax and inspection regulations are not unified, making the cost of expanding international markets for small businesses still high.

However, he still highly appreciated Vietnam's potential, stating that Vietnam is the country with the highest growth optimism in Southeast Asia, driven by outstanding adaptability and deep belief in fundamental factors.

Policy changes, especially increasing e-commerce platform fees, are a challenge for the market (Photo: DT).

Regarding the increase in fees on e-commerce platforms, sharing with Dan Tri newspaper reporter , Mr. Le Thanh Tung - leader of the distribution company, level 1 agent for organic products of Tra Vinh Farm... - said that this significantly affects current business through the platform.

Mr. Tung said that in 2019, the fee of platforms like Tiki was about 4%, while Shopee subsidized at that time, so the platform fee only took 2%. Up to now, the platform fee (not including advertising and marketing) of Shopee and TikTok Shop platforms is up to 26-29%. If you include the cost of returning products, advertising costs... then the total fee is up to 30%.

“Meanwhile, the discount rate for level 1 agents like my company is about 35-40%, which is still little profit. As for level 2 distributors, they can no longer survive. As a result, level 1 agents today have to compete with the manufacturer. The customer base remains unchanged, but orders are transferred from agents back to manufacturers,” said Mr. Tung.

He also added that in the past there was little competition, but today the level of competition on the floor is extremely high. He calculated that in the past his company's profit was about several dozen percent (%), but now it has narrowed to only a few percent. Therefore, if in the past selling through the floor was enough, today the company has to sell "offline" through fairs, events... (he said he did not open points of sale due to tax pressure, and predicted that he would incur losses due to high premises costs).

“In general, business is getting harder. Therefore, nowadays, not only the price but also the quality of the goods must be good. Because when we make quality products, customers will trust us and stay with us,” Mr. Tung added.

Overall, despite challenges in spending and policies to restructure the market, e-commerce is still a fertile "playground" in Vietnam. VECOM even believes that the market size could reach 100 billion USD by 2030 (based on the assumption that Vietnam will maintain a high growth rate and trends such as cross-border e-commerce and new industries will develop dramatically).

In its development plans, the Ministry of Industry and Trade also set a target that e-commerce will account for 20% of total retail sales of goods and consumer services by 2030, an indicator showing the leading role of this channel in the future.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/mieng-banh-thuong-mai-dien-tu-25-ty-usd-tai-viet-nam-ngot-va-day-kich-tinh-20251027190102104.htm