► Stock market commentary October 16: The market will still fluctuate and have inertia to adjust
Buy recommendation for VNM stock
BIDV Securities Company (BSC) maintains a buy recommendation for VNM shares of Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company with a 1-year fair value of VND83,000/share (Upside 24% compared to the closing price on October 15), based on DCF and P/E ratios of 60%:40%.
At the same time, BSC adjusted its target price up slightly by 4% compared to the previous target price, mainly due to increased expectations for 2024/2025 business results due to positive signals on market share and after-tax profit through Q2/2024 business results and adjusted WACC down to 7.6% before the FED's interest rate cut in September 2024.
Upside expectations: Continued expansion of domestic and foreign market share in the second half of 2024-2025, driving revenue growth higher than industry growth (CAGR 2019-2023 about 1.7%)
After the period of profit decline in 2019-2023 (CAGR about -3%), the profit period in 2023-2025 will enter a recovery cycle with a CAGR of about 8% thanks to comprehensive restructuring efforts and input material prices entering a stable cycle.
In 2024, BSC forecasts net revenue and profit after tax - minority shareholders to reach VND 64,371 billion (up 6.6% compared to the previous year) and VND 10,082 billion (up 14% year-on-year), respectively, EPS FW reaching 4,342 times and PE FW reaching 15.4 times - Increasing market share thanks to brand repositioning strategy and gross profit margin recovery thanks to the cooling of raw materials compared to the same period and reasonable product structure.
In 2025, BSC forecasts net revenue and profit after tax - minority shareholders to reach VND 66,003 billion (up 3% over the previous year) and VND 10,427 billion (up 3.4%), EPS FW to reach 4,490 and PE FW to reach 15 times - Expecting demand recovery and reasonable product portfolio structure, contributing to new sales channels and new customer groups.
Buy recommendation for CTG stock
VietinBank Securities Company (CTS) recommends buying shares of Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade (CTG), target price of VND 50,000/share based on the following technical analysis: CTG shares are in an uptrend and approaching the old peak at VND 37,000/share - this peak is recorded as the highest in history. Notably, the cup and handle pattern is appearing in CTG shares when the price has successfully formed a handle and is showing signs of surpassing the base price of the cup.
In terms of the fluctuations of the indicators, the RSI indicator is currently showing signs of surpassing the 60-point price zone after a strong increase since the beginning of August 2024 of CTG stock. The MACD indicator is showing signs of recovery, the histogram is still below the 0 zone, showing that there is still a lot of room for growth according to the MACD. In addition, the short-term and medium-term EMA lines such as 10/20 and 50 are all below the price line, creating stable dynamic support zones to support the growth of the stock price.
TPS expects CTG shares to overcome the resistance zone of VND 37,000/share and reach the target at the price zone of VND 50,000/share according to the Cup and Handle model.
Investors can consider trading CTG shares when: buying immediately at the resistance zone of VND 36,500/share, waiting to buy when CTG shares adjust to the price zone of VND 34,000/share.
Source: https://vov.vn/thi-truong/chung-khoan/mot-so-co-phieu-can-quan-tam-ngay-1610-post1128648.vov
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