(Dan Tri) - US Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump both have potential paths to the White House in the closest presidential election in 75 years.
With less than two weeks to go before the US presidential election, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump are working hard to find the best path to the White House. Both candidates are focusing on the battleground states that could decide the election. The race in these seven states is extremely tight, with neither candidate leading by more than 2 points.
Ms. Harris won back the "blue wall"
Winning the three Democratic “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin is Harris’ best chance of winning the White House. These states supported Trump in 2016 but returned to the Democratic Party in 2020. However, this would also be the closest path for Vice President Harris to victory. Specifically, in this case, Harris wins in the above states, while Trump wins in the southern and southwestern states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Thus, Harris would win with a minimum of 270 electoral votes, compared to Trump’s 268. For this victory to happen, Harris needs to win one electoral vote from Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Nebraska is one of two states that distributes its votes according to the results of each congressional district, and the 2nd appears to be leaning Democratic, although voting there has been significantly curtailed. Democrats appear to have the best hope of Harris winning the same states that President Joe Biden won four years ago, plus one more that he lost, North Carolina. Polls appear to support that possibility, with Harris either leading or closely trailing Trump in all seven battleground states. That would be a significant improvement over Biden late in his campaign, when he trailed, especially in the South and Southwest. If Harris wins all seven, she would win 319 electoral votes, the most by a presidential candidate since President Barack Obama won re-election in 2012. Trump would be 100 votes behind her with 219. Many forecasts suggest that at least one battleground state will have a different outcome than the previous election. Historically, it has never been the case that all battleground states have gone the same party in two consecutive elections. However, this year’s situation seems more likely than other years. US Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned in Pennsylvania on September 13 (Photo: AFP). Pennsylvania is perhaps the most closely contested state, and it is the state that matters most to the candidates’ chances of winning. Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes, more than any other battleground state, and it has received the most attention from both candidates. According to the ad tracking firm AdImpact, candidates will spend more on ads in Pennsylvania in the final weeks of the election than in any other state. A win in Pennsylvania would be a huge boost for Harris, especially since recent polls in Michigan and Wisconsin have shown stronger support for Democrats. But if she loses Pennsylvania, Harris still has some options. North Carolina and Georgia both have nearly as many electoral votes as Pennsylvania, with 16 each. Democrats see North Carolina as their best chance of winning the state back from Republicans. If Harris can hold her ground in Michigan and Wisconsin while the two parties split control of North Carolina and Georgia, Democrats will only need to carry Arizona or Nevada, which is where the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill model shows the vice president has the best chance.
Trump's ambition to return to the White House
If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he will have a better path to 270 electoral votes than Harris. The easiest way to do that would be to win Pennsylvania and the other two states with the highest electoral value, Georgia and North Carolina. But even if Harris wins one of those two states, she would still need to win at least three of the remaining four battleground states to win, while Trump only needs two. The vice president could win Georgia and North Carolina, but at this point, that goal is more out of reach for Harris than Pennsylvania. Models from The Hill and the election prediction site Decision Desk HQ show that Trump has a 65% chance of winning those two states. Meanwhile, Trump and Harris have a 50-50 chance of winning Pennsylvania. Former US President Donald Trump (Photo: Reuters). According to FiveThirtyEight 's model, if Trump wins Pennsylvania, he has an 86% chance of winning re-election. Losing Pennsylvania, on the other hand, would be a major blow to him. If Trump wins North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, he would need to pick up one of the remaining "blue wall" states to get past 270 electoral votes. If he wins North Carolina and Georgia, along with the next most valuable state, Michigan, he would need to win just one more state, Arizona, Wisconsin or Nevada, to return to the White House. That would be a relatively unlikely scenario. A more likely scenario would be for Trump to try to gather a group of states with double-digit electoral votes to make up for his loss of 19 votes in Pennsylvania. Another scenario, less likely but not impossible, is that Trump wins all the battleground states. Early in the campaign, when polls were not very positive for Democratic candidate and incumbent President Joe Biden, Trump was expected to easily win all seven battleground states. Now, Harris' campaign is looking better than Biden's, but Trump still has the potential to win all the battleground states. If Trump wins all seven, he would win 312 electoral votes to Harris's 226, a better performance than in 2016 when he won his first term. This scenario could be especially likely if Trump outperforms the polls, as he has done to some extent in the previous two elections. He won a surprise victory in 2016 after most analysts predicted Democrat Hillary Clinton would win. He only needs to be slightly ahead in the polls this year, which could be enough to give him an advantage in battleground states. But pollsters warn that Trump will outperform the polls this year because each election cycle is different and pollsters adjust their methods to better correct for past errors.
"The Billionaire's Hand"
Billionaires spend big money to support two US presidential candidates (Photo: Slate). A characteristic of US presidential elections is the active participation of interest groups, including tycoons, who are big donors to the candidates' campaigns. Political analyst Jeremy Carl said that current political issues are even more sensitive for some billionaires than in previous elections. In the tightest, most intense presidential race in 75 years between Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris, billionaires are more outspoken in funding candidates and expressing their views on issues such as immigration, taxes, etc. Mr. Trump seems to be receiving more support from billionaires. According to statistics from the Slate news site, more than 60 billionaires have opened their wallets to support his campaign. Mr. Trump's supporters are often tycoons and wealthy businessmen who benefit from tax breaks, or his commitment to encourage cryptocurrencies and end strict management measures for this industry. Democrats, on the other hand, tend to pursue policies that tax the wealthy or regulate mergers and acquisitions to prevent monopolies. Trump supporters may also be part of a disaffected online base, worried about immigration and the war in Ukraine while skeptical of the Biden-Harris administration’s accomplishments. Many Silicon Valley leaders are voicing their support for Trump, despite previously leaning toward social liberalism and supporting Democrats like former President Barack Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Even Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who once said he would not donate to any presidential candidate, has recently begun to strongly support Trump. He has also endorsed the conspiracy theory that the Biden administration is allowing illegal immigration into the country to get Democratic votes. The Tesla and SpaceX boss is said to have spent at least $132 million to support Trump's campaign. He even announced that he would pay $1 million a day to random voters who signed an online petition supporting free speech and gun rights, which was launched earlier this month by a pro-Trump super PAC. He also campaigned on stage with Trump. The real motivation behind all of this from the world 's richest man remains unclear, but it seems to be tied to a desire to loosen government regulations, especially in the field of space exploration. A potential Trump administration could also be motivated by tax cuts. According to a report by Rolling Stone, Musk could receive one of the largest personal tax breaks in US history if Trump wins the election and appoints the Tesla boss to a government position. Democratic candidate Harris also received support from a number of influential tycoons, including billionaire Bill Gates, who donated $50 million to her campaign. However, she is uncomfortable with income inequality in the US and the enormous economic and political power of the super-rich. Unlike Mr. Trump, Ms. Harris wants to impose higher taxes on the super-rich, including a “billionaires’ minimum tax” and even a tax on their unrealized capital gains. A significant portion of the wealthy who support Ms. Harris are concerned about the threat to American democracy if Mr. Trump is re-elected. They include leaders in Silicon Valley and influential people like singer Taylor Swift. While Mr Trump appears to have a leg up in the wealthy class, Allan Lichtman, a historian who has accurately predicted the outcome of every US presidential election since 1982 using the “13 Keys” method, still believes Ms Harris has a shot at winning. Mr Lichtman said billionaires may be more outspoken in this election, but their support is unlikely to play a decisive role.
According to Financial Review, Slate, Hill, Fortune
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