Trump has a higher win prediction than Harris for the first time

A poll by The Hill newspaper shows that for the first time since August, Republican candidate Donald Trump is considered to have a higher chance of winning than Ms. Kamala Harris.

According to a poll released by The Hill on October 20 (US time), Mr. Trump's chances of winning the 2024 US presidential election are currently at 52%, the highest since August. Meanwhile, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris's figure is only 48%.

For the first time, Mr. Trump's predicted victory is higher than Ms. Harris's. Photo: The Hill

It is known that the predicted winning rate of Republican candidate Trump from August 20 to the middle of this month has always been lower than that of Democratic candidate Harris. In fact, Ms. Harris's winning chance once exceeded Mr. Trump's, with the rates being 57% and 43% respectively. However, since October 16, Mr. Trump's winning chance has gradually become equal, and on October 20, it surpassed her opponent Harris for the first time.

Ms. Harris once achieved an election victory rating far exceeding Mr. Trump. Photo: The Hill

The data above from The Hill shows that the predicted percentage of Mr. Trump's Electoral College votes also surpassed Ms. Harris's for the first time, with the number of votes for the two Republican and Democratic candidates being 272 votes and 266 votes, respectively.

Predicted Electoral College vote ratios for Trump and Harris on October 20. Photo: The Hill

In addition, candidate Trump is gaining "small advantages" in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, as well as improving his support rate in the states of Wisconsin and Michigan.

Candidate Trump in Pennsylvania on October 20. Photo: Donald Trump/ Social Network X

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