After two increases, gasoline prices are expected to decrease in the operating period tomorrow, October 17, 2024

Domestic gasoline prices tomorrow (October 17) are expected to fall following world prices.

Tomorrow (October 17) is the retail price management period. gasoline according to Decree 80/2023/ND-CP amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decree 95/2021/ND-CP and Decree 83/2014/ND-CP of the Government on petroleum trading.

Domestic gasoline prices tomorrow (October 17) are forecast to reverse and decrease following world prices. Photo: VNA

This morning, October 16, world oil prices continued to fall to their lowest level in nearly 2 weeks due to weaker demand prospects and concerns about supply disruptions eased by news that Israel will not attack Iran's nuclear and oil facilities.

Specifically, at 8:00 a.m. (Vietnam time), Brent crude oil price reached 74.6 USD/barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price reached 70.9 USD/barrel. At the end of yesterday's trading session, both Brent crude oil price and WTI crude oil price decreased by about 4%.

Both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) this week cut their forecasts for global oil demand growth through 2024, largely due to China’s economic slowdown. Meanwhile, OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, may delay a planned production increase later this year because current crude prices are below the level needed for most member countries to meet their national budgets.

Based on the developments in world oil prices, some oil businesses believe that domestic oil prices may be adjusted downwards in the next adjustment period, October 17. If the regulatory agency does not affect the Oil Price Stabilization Fund, domestic oil prices may decrease by VND130-180/liter. Diesel prices may decrease by VND180-230/liter.

If the regulatory agency draws from the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund, gasoline prices may decrease less. If the above forecast is correct, domestic gasoline prices will reverse downward after a sharp increase in the previous regulatory period.

In another development, the Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model of the Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI) said that in the operating period on October 17, gasoline prices may decrease slightly by 0.1%, bringing the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline to VND 19,823/liter, and RON 95-III gasoline to VND 21,033/liter. This period, oil prices are forecast to decrease slightly by 0.3-0.7%, in which diesel and kerosene may decrease by 0.3% to VND 18,439/liter and VND 18,730/liter, respectively, while fuel oil may decrease by 0.7% to VND 16,027/kg.

VPI also forecasts that the inter-ministerial Industry and Trade - This fiscal period will continue to not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

In the most recent adjustment period (October 10), the prices of all types of gasoline and oil were adjusted up sharply by the Ministry of Industry and Trade - Ministry of Finance. Specifically, the price of E5 gasoline increased by VND990/liter, up to VND19,840/liter. The price of RON 95 gasoline increased by VND1,260/liter, the selling price is VND21,060/liter.

Similarly, diesel price increased by VND1,100/liter, to VND18,930/liter. Kerosene price increased by VND1,140/liter, to VND18,790/liter.

In this management period, the Ministry of Industry and Trade - Ministry of Finance decided not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund for E5RON92 gasoline, RON95 gasoline, diesel oil, kerosene, and fuel oil.

Currently, the room for the petroleum price stabilization fund of some key enterprises is still recording a large positive level because in many recent management periods, the fund has not been used. The fund balance as of the end of the second quarter was VND 6,061 billion, down VND 18 billion compared to the previous quarter and the fifth consecutive quarter of decrease. Compared to the end of 2023, the fund balance decreased by nearly VND 600 billion.

Of which, the fund balance at the Vietnam National Petroleum Group (Petrolimex) - the enterprise holding half of the domestic petroleum retail market share - accounts for more than half, at nearly VND3,079 billion.

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