Forex market sentiment remains cautious

Last weekend, the central exchange rate announced by the State Bank was 24,960 VND/USD, down 10 VND compared to the previous day. With a fluctuation range of 5%, commercial banks traded in the range of 23,712 - 26,208 VND/USD.

Meanwhile, the reference exchange rate at the State Bank of Vietnam was also adjusted down to 23,762 VND/USD (buy) - 26,158 VND/USD (sell).

At the Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (Vietcomban), the listed exchange rate is 25,720 VND/USD (buy) - 26,110 VND/USD (sell). At the Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade of Vietnam ( VietinBank ), it is 25,750 VND/USD (buy) - 26,110 VND/USD (sell). In the free market, the common USD exchange rate is 26,450 VND/USD (buy) - 26,550 VND/USD (sell).

Thus, last week, the central exchange rate increased slightly by 9 VND compared to the previous week, including one session with a strong increase of 28 VND, three sessions with a decrease in temperature and one session with no change in price.

However, the listed exchange rate at commercial banks had a "cooling down" week, with many sessions remaining flat and decreasing slightly, corresponding to a decrease of about 40 VND in the selling price.

In the free market, the exchange rate fluctuated in the opposite direction, increasing by 75 VND. Statistics show that the USD/VND exchange rate increased by 1.6% last month and increased by a total of 2% since the beginning of 2025.

The EUR also tended to cool down last week, with pre-closing trading at VND28,298/EUR (buy) - VND29,843/EUR (sell), down VND157 for buying and VND170 for selling.

The world market also saw the USD fall to its lowest level in the past 3 years when the DXY index measuring the strength of the USD against a basket of major currencies decreased even while maintaining the mark above 100 points.

Weaker-than-expected US inflation data and the sharpest decline in the producer price index (PPI) in five years could prompt the US Federal Reserve (FED) to plan to cut interest rates. At the same time, easing global trade tensions have made investors less focused on the USD, pushing the greenback lower against major currencies.

Specifically, in the first trading session of the week, the USD increased by 1.44%, reaching 101.78 when the US and China reached a temporary agreement to cut tariffs on each other's goods and eased concerns that a trade war between the world's two largest economies could lead to a global recession.

On May 14, the USD fell 0.86% to 100.93 after new data showed that US consumer inflation in April increased less than expected. On May 15, the DXY index recovered slightly, increasing 0.07% to 101.02. On May 16, the USD fell 0.23% to 100.81 after a series of economic data, including data that retail spending slowed in April. The USD ended the trading week by increasing 0.10% to 100.98.

Forecasting next week, experts said that the USD/VND exchange rate may increase due to concerns about reciprocal taxes affecting FDI capital flows and Vietnam's exports, as well as the pressure on domestic gold prices to increase sharply in April. It is estimated that SJC gold prices increased by 19.2% in April.

A report by Viet Dragon Securities Corporation (VDSC) stated that the US tax policy may make investors doubt the USD's role as a safe haven, which is a favorable factor for exchange rate movements.

However, the downside is the uncertainty about the tariff scenario after the negotiations, causing concerns about Vietnam's exports and foreign investment flows. In the short term, the State Bank has room to control the depreciation of the dong within the allowable range of 3-5% in 2025. The sentiment in the foreign exchange market remains cautious as investors are still waiting for the results of the tariff negotiations between Vietnam and the United States.

Under pressure on exchange rates, the State Bank returned to net withdrawing VND29,493.47 billion. Last week, the State Bank provided liquidity to the market through the open market operation (OMO) channel, with a volume of VND18,397.26 billion, significantly lower than the previous week (VND38,094.34 billion). However, the volume of matured mortgage loans reached VND47,890.73 billion, so the total amount of OMO in circulation decreased to VND46,226.65 billion.

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/tam-ly-thi-truong-ngoai-hoi-van-than-trong-702671.html