Credit growth this year likely to reach 18-20%

Credit growth for the whole year of 2025 could reach 18 - 20%, while the USD/VND exchange rate will be anchored around 26,400 - 26,500 VND/USD in the third quarter.

The USD/VND exchange rate is forecast to trade at a high level of around 26,400 - 26,500 VND/USD in the third quarter - Photo: QUANG DINH

The exchange rate will remain high.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates unchanged at its meeting at the end of July. With this development, the US dollar has increased significantly compared to other major currencies and the USD index is returning to 100, the highest level in the past 3 months.

Mr. Dinh Duc Quang - Director of Currency Trading at UOB Vietnam Bank - commented that the possibility of USD interest rates continuing to be anchored for the remaining months of 2025 is quite high.

In the domestic market, this development continues to put pressure on expectations that VND interest rates will be cut to support production and business, promoting high growth according to the Government's GDP growth target of over 8% in 2025.

According to Mr. Quang, high USD interest rates will also continue to attract holdings of USD and USD assets in the US and around the world , thereby continuing to cause difficulties in implementing monetary policies to ensure stable USD/VND exchange rate and expand foreign exchange reserves.

"The UOB research team currently holds the view that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) will temporarily not adjust VND policy interest rates in the short term.

We believe that the State Bank will continue to monitor domestic macroeconomic developments, monitor USD interest rate trends and the impacts of the new tariff policy effective from August 1, from which it will make decisions on VND interest rates," said Mr. Quang.

UOB also leans towards the view that the SBV will quickly adjust the VND interest rate down by about 0.5% if the USD interest rate is cut in the September Fed meeting and the USD interest rate decline trend is clearer in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.

"We also maintain our view that the USD/VND exchange rate will continue to trade at a high level around VND26,400-26,500/USD in Q3 and will slightly decrease to around VND26,000/USD in late 2025 and early 2026. The VND may depreciate by about 2-3% against the USD in 2025."

Credit growth for the whole year 2025 can be up to 18-20%

Credit increased rapidly from the first months of the year - Photo: NP

With the above viewpoint, UOB also sees that the possibility of commercial banks sharply reducing deposit interest rates and VND lending interest rates in the last months of the year is low.

The VND mobilization interest rate in August 2025 is currently lower than the same period in 2025 by about 0.2 - 0.4%/year depending on the term and is consistent in overall correlation with international USD interest rates and fluctuations in the USD/VND exchange rate in recent months.

At this interest rate, the market also recorded a high credit growth of 10% in the first 6 months of the year, and credit growth for the whole year of 2025 is likely to reach 18-20%, which is a strong support factor for economic growth.

"In the most optimistic scenario, if possible, when USD interest rates decrease at the end of the year, the tariff impact is small and the upgraded stock market strongly attracts foreign capital flows again, we can hope that VND interest rates can decrease more strongly by about 0.5 - 0.75%.

This is an important factor that will positively impact the economic growth plan of 8-9% in 2026," Mr. Quang commented.

PINK LIGHT

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/tang-truong-tin-dung-nam-nay-kha-nang-cham-moc-18-20-20250806221057888.htm