Liquidity plummets, VN-Index increases slightly in tug-of-war

The spectacular reversal session on the afternoon of November 4 had raised expectations that the market would enter a more pronounced recovery phase, opening up the opportunity to soon return to the 1,700-point mark. However, the trading session on November 5 showed that cautious sentiment returned, causing cash flow to become more cautious and the market's upward momentum to be no longer as strong as expected.

Fragile green amid cautious wave, money flows withdraw from the market

At the end of the session, VN-Index only increased modestly by 2.91 points (+0.18%) to 1,654.89 points in a tug-of-war situation. The market breadth was clearly tilted towards the downside with 190 stocks losing points, one and a half times the number of stocks gaining points (121 stocks). Other indices such as HNX-Index and UPCoM-Index remained green, increasing by 0.79% and 1.06% respectively.

The most notable highlight of the day was the sharp decline in liquidity. The total value of matched transactions on HoSE reached only VND19,968 billion, down 41.7% compared to the previous session. The matched volume also dropped sharply by 45.4% to 654.3 million units - the lowest level in 19 weeks.

In the context of the market having just had a strong increase yesterday afternoon, the trading level of around 20,000 billion VND is considered too low. This clearly reflects the withdrawal of cash flow after the rather unexpected "price shock". Investors are worried about the risk of short-term profit taking, so they choose to stay on the sidelines and observe instead of continuing to compete for prices.

Liquidity on the two listed floors in the afternoon only increased slightly by about 15% compared to the morning session, but overall for the day still decreased sharply by 39.4% compared to yesterday.

In contrast to the general market's caution, the oil and gas group continued to maintain a positive performance. PVD and PVS both increased by 5.9%, BSR and PLX also traded actively and closed in the green. This increase was supported by positive developments in world oil prices and expectations that it would soon be reflected in the fourth quarter profits of enterprises in the industry.

The raw materials group also recorded highlights such as DPM increasing by 5.06%, GVR increasing by 1.04%. However, HPG decreased by 1.68% due to concerns that steel demand will continue to weaken.

The banking sector performed in opposite directions, showing the cautious sentiment of cash flow. Some large stocks supported the market such as CTG up 2.7%, VCB up 1.16%. On the contrary, many stocks decreased such asSHB (-0.61%), VPB (-0.85%), ACB (-1.54%). This divergence shows that expectations for the banking sector are not strong enough for the market to go further in the short term.

The real estate group generally declined. VHM fell 0.6%, VRE lost nearly 3%, CEO fell 2.39%. VIC alone went against the trend with a strong increase of 2.74%, contributing significantly to maintaining the index's pace.

The financial services group, especially securities stocks, was under strong profit-taking pressure. SSI maintained a slight increase of 0.43%, while VIX fell 2.87% and VCI fell 2.99%. With many stocks in the group having just experienced a series of hot increases, pressure to return points is inevitable.

In the industrial group, many codes adjusted deeply such as GEX (-3.92%), VGC (-2.81%) due to being affected by short-term profit-taking pressure.

Despite the overwhelming number of declining codes, the market did not record any selling pressure. Of the 190 declining codes, 122 codes still decreased by more than 1% and only 18 codes had a trading value of "hundreds of billions of VND". This shows that the move is mainly a technical adjustment after the previous too-quick recovery session, rather than a sign of a trend reversal.

VN-Index increased, but not everyone was happy. Most stocks were below the reference price, making many investors feel that the market was "fake green" - the index increased thanks to large-cap stocks but personal accounts were still red.

The market is entering a phase that tests patience: staying out too long will miss opportunities, but jumping in too quickly risks a correction.

Analysts said the index may continue to move within a narrow range as money flows need more basis for action, especially clearer signals from global monetary and economic policy.

UPCoM-Index increased by 1.22 points (+1.06%) to 116.50 points. The entire floor had 144 stocks increasing, 76 stocks decreasing, liquidity reached 25.2 million units, worth 625.3 billion VND. OIL was the focus with nearly 3 million units matched, closing up 4.76% to 11,000 VND - the only stock on the floor with liquidity of over 2 million units.

The derivatives market recorded the VN30 futures contract expiring in November falling 12 points (-0.63%) to 1,886 points, stronger than the decrease of the underlying index. Liquidity reached 288,706 contracts, with a conversion value of about VND54,535 billion; open volume reached more than 41,423 contracts.

The warrant market shows a high risk return. There are 7 codes with liquidity of over 1 million units but 5 of them decreased deeply by over 10%. Contrary to the general trend, two warrants of VNM, CVNM2515 and CVNM2521, increased by 2% and 11.25% respectively.

The individual corporate bond market recorded 7.26 million units transferred, worth VND4,455.2 billion. Of which, VDI12101 of Viet Duc Investment and Trading Company Limited led in value with more than VND991 billion.

The November 5 session showed investors' hesitation and hesitation after strong fluctuations. Although the index is still green, weak liquidity signals that cash flow is waiting for new opportunities before returning to the market.

In the context of many unknowns in macro and policy factors, the reasonable strategy at this time may be to be patient, choosing stocks with solid foundations and growth expectations in the fourth quarter, instead of chasing risky short-term waves.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/thanh-khoan-lao-doc-vn-index-tang-nhe-trong-giang-co-173116.html