COMMODITIES MARKET: Coffee prices fall, silver hits record

(Chinhphu.vn) - The world raw material market continued to fluctuate in the session on November 12. After two sessions of improvement, the MXV-Index reversed and fell 0.4% to 2,365 points when selling pressure dominated at the end of the session. Coffee was the focus of attention when prices plummeted after US President Donald Trump's statement on reducing import taxes, causing the industrial raw material group to sink deeper into the red, leading the weakening momentum of the entire market.

Red covers industrial raw materials group, coffee has the deepest decrease

Yesterday’s session saw overwhelming selling pressure in the industrial raw materials market, with coffee becoming the focus. Specifically, Arabica coffee prices fell more than 4.5%, closing at $8,898/ton, while Robusta coffee fell to $4,366/ton after losing nearly 5.5% of its value.

According to MXV, the coffee market has just experienced a sharp decline after receiving a lot of positive information related to the US tariff policy and supply. In an interview with Fox News, President Trump said that the US will cut coffee import taxes for some countries, although he did not specify the case of Brazil. Previously, he also mentioned tax exemption for coffee imported from Vietnam - the world's largest source of Robusta coffee, the main ingredient for instant coffee production in the US.

Not only stopping at the tariff factor, the forecast from the research unit StoneX on the coffee output of the next crop in Brazil is also putting more pressure on prices. According to estimates, the 2026-2027 crop year of Brazil will reach 70.7 million bags, a sharp increase of 13.5% compared to the previous crop. Of which, Arabica output recorded an impressive increase, reaching 47.2 million bags, up 29.3% compared to last year, while Robusta output is forecast to decrease by 8.9% to 23.5 million bags.

However, MXV believes that this forecast still has significant risks. Although the 2026-2027 crop year is expected to be a good year according to the biennial biological cycle of Arabica coffee, global weather fluctuations and unusual climate conditions in Brazil in recent months are making coffee production forecasts more difficult to be accurate.

This is partly reflected in the continued significant decline in supplies from Brazil, which has been the main support factor for coffee prices in the recent period. From January to the end of October, Brazil exported about 33.28 million bags of coffee, a figure 20.3% lower than the nearly 41.8 million bags last year.

In the Vietnamese market, the situation remains stable with regular transactions from new crop sources. Harvesting progress in key areas is accelerating. Yesterday's green coffee prices were generally at 118,000 - 119,000 VND/kg, basically unchanged from the previous session.

International silver market continues to be supported

In contrast to the developments in the industrial raw materials market, the prices of metal commodities yesterday returned to a strong upward trend. Notably, the US inclusion of silver in the list of essential minerals continued to support the price of this commodity to have a fourth consecutive increase. Specifically, the price of silver closed yesterday's session soaring more than 5.35%, setting a new record high of 53.46 USD/ounce.

The US is currently the world's largest market for physical silver investment demand (accounting for 35%), and is also the second largest consumer of industrial silver (19%) after China (40%). However, about 65% of domestic demand depends on imported supplies. The possibility of imposing import tariffs on this commodity has triggered concerns about a serious supply shortage, thereby promoting the price increase in the recent trading session.

According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), silver demand in the US is mainly concentrated in two areas: electricity - electronics and physical investment, each group accounts for about 30% of total consumption. In addition, the solar cell manufacturing industry - a key link in the global green energy transition also plays a significant role with about 12% of the country's silver demand.

In addition, the US labor market continues to send worrying signals, reinforcing expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to loosen monetary policy before the end of the year to support the labor market. A report from ADP shows that private businesses cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 25, the sharpest decline since late August.

If the Fed cuts interest rates for the third time this year, the strength of the US dollar could be affected, making dollar-denominated assets, including silver, more attractive to investors holding other currencies. At the same time, lower interest rates will facilitate investment, expand industrial production and support silver consumption.

In addition, according to a survey by the London Precious Metals Market Association (LBMA) at the end of October, silver prices are forecast to reach $59/ounce within the next 12 months. Since the beginning of the year, this metal has recorded an increase of 80%, far exceeding both gold and platinum. However, experts also warn that this strong increase risks reducing demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry, as manufacturers are forced to switch to alternative materials to control production costs. Currently, silver accounts for about 15% of the total cost of producing solar panels.

Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/thi-truong-hang-hoa-gia-ca-phe-roi-bac-lap-ky-luc-102251113091923249.htm