Oil prices fall due to oversupply, coffee prices rise sharply due to weather concerns

WTI and Brent crude oil prices lost nearly 2% last week due to a surge in US inventories, while Arabica and Robusta coffee prices rose as much as 4% on concerns about supply disruptions from Vietnam.

Commodity markets move in opposite directions

The world commodity market last week (November 3-7) witnessed opposite movements between two key commodity groups. According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), crude oil prices fell significantly due to concerns about oversupply, while coffee prices increased sharply due to harvest disruptions in major production areas.

Crude oil prices under strong downward pressure

At the end of the trading week, WTI oil prices fell about 2%, remaining around the threshold of 59.7 USD/barrel. Similarly, Brent oil prices also lost more than 1.7% of their value, falling to the level of 63.6 USD/barrel. The sharpest decline occurred on November 5, pushing both commodities to their lowest levels in two weeks.

Soaring US inventories put pressure

The main reason for the decline was reports showing that oil supplies in the US are abundant. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by more than 5 million barrels in the week ending October 31. The American Petroleum Institute (API) also recorded an increase of 6.5 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations, reinforcing concerns about the prospect of a supply glut.

In addition, political instability in the US with the government shutdown lasting 38 days as of November 7 also had a negative impact. Investors tended to seek safe haven assets, withdrawing capital from risky assets such as crude oil. The prolonged shutdown also reduced demand for jet fuel as the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) had to cut thousands of flights.

Developments from OPEC+ and the domestic market

On the OPEC+ side, the organization announced plans to increase production by about 137,000 barrels/day in December, a figure that did not surprise. However, a notable signal is that OPEC+ may pause production increases in the first quarter of 2026, the period forecast to be the weakest in terms of supply-demand balance, helping oil prices recover slightly at the beginning of the week.

In the domestic market, the Ministry of Industry and Trade - Ministry of Finance adjusted retail gasoline prices on the afternoon of November 6. Specifically, the price of fuel oil decreased the most by 319 VND/kg, E5RON92 and RON95 gasoline decreased slightly by 70-80 VND/liter. In contrast, the price of diesel oil increased by 120 VND/liter.

Coffee prices soar due to supply disruptions

In contrast to oil, the coffee market became a bright spot when both main types increased sharply after the tug-of-war sessions at the beginning of the week. Arabica coffee prices recorded an increase of more than 4%, reaching 8,990 USD/ton. Meanwhile, Robusta coffee prices also increased by nearly 2.4%, reaching 4,648 USD/ton.

Source: MXV

Storms in Vietnam and Brazil's exports drop

The market focus is now on Vietnam, where Typhoon Kalmaegi, which hit the Central Highlands on the evening of November 6, has severely disrupted the 2025-2026 crop harvest. Harvest progress in key regions such as Gia Lai, Dak Lak, and Lam Dong has only reached 10-20%. Prolonged heavy rains have affected drying quality, raising concerns about the actual yield of Robusta beans.

Meanwhile, in Brazil, coffee exports in the July-October period of the 2025-2026 crop year have fallen sharply by 22% compared to the same period last year, to just under 12.5 million bags. This situation has forced roasters in the US to increase purchases from certified stocks, causing Arabica coffee inventories at the New York ICE to continuously decline, reaching a nearly two-year low on November 7, at about 417,480 bags.

Source: MXV

Domestic coffee prices remain high

In the domestic market, the price of raw coffee beans last weekend remained high, fluctuating around 119,500 VND/kg, an increase of 1,500-2,000 VND/kg compared to the previous weekend. Purchasing power at large warehouses in Buon Ma Thuot and Gia Lai remained stable, with purchasing prices ranging from 119,000 to 120,500 VND/kg depending on type and quality.

Source: https://baolamdong.vn/gia-dau-giam-do-du-cung-ca-phe-tang-manh-vi-lo-ngai-thoi-weather-401797.html