Commodity market today: Oil price jumped more than 4%

The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) said that before the US and China - the two leading economies in the world - entered into tariff negotiations, the commodity market had relatively positive developments. Last trading week, overwhelming buying pressure pushed the MXV-Index up more than 1% to 2,193 points...

Thị trường hàng hoá hôm nay: Giá dầu bật tăng hơn 4%

MXV-Index

Oil prices jumped more than 4%

According to MXV, the energy group led the market's gains as all five commodities closed in the green. Crude oil alone broke the decline of the previous two weeks. Investor sentiment gradually stabilized as attention focused on the outcome of the trade negotiations between the US and China.

At the end of the trading session on May 9, Brent oil price increased by 4.27%, climbing to 63.91 USD/barrel. Meanwhile, WTI oil price stopped at 61.02 USD/barrel, increasing by 4.68%.

Energy price list

Investors' concerns about oversupply intensified in the first trading session of the week when OPEC+ confirmed a sharp increase in production in June. After an hour-long online meeting between eight member countries on Saturday (May 3), the increase in production confirmed by the OPEC+ group in June was 411,000 barrels/day, similar to the increase in May. This move caused oil prices to fall sharply in the first trading session of the week due to concerns about a resurgence of oversupply amid a lack of real improvement in global demand.

However, market sentiment turned positive at the weekend after US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a historic bilateral trade deal, keeping the 10% tariff on imports from the UK but removing many barriers for US goods, especially agricultural products, cars, steel and aluminum, to enter the UK market. This agreement has raised investors' expectations for the US-China trade talks in Switzerland on May 10. At the end of the first day of negotiations, President Trump described the meeting as "very good" and "constructive". Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on May 11 that the world's two largest economies had made "significant progress" in the two-day round of negotiations. These signals created a strong momentum for oil prices in the last two sessions of the week.

In addition, the market still recorded certain concerns about the demand for gasoline in the US. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that although crude oil reserves decreased by 2 million barrels in the week ending May 2, the amount of oil input at oil refineries decreased by 7,000 barrels/day, while gasoline inventories increased by 188,000 barrels - a development contrary to the peak summer season, when gasoline demand usually increases sharply.

Normally, this time of year would see a sharp increase in gasoline demand due to the travel needs of Americans. The latest figures from the EIA are raising concerns about the outlook for retail gasoline consumption in the coming time, especially in the context of important economic indicators in the US, notably GDP growth in the first quarter, continuing to send negative signals. This is also a factor that is holding back the recovery of oil prices this week.

Soybean market fluctuates

According to MXV, the soybean market closed the past trading week with a slight decrease of 0.59% to 386 USD/ton, reflecting the tug of war between conflicting fundamental factors and cautious investor sentiment ahead of a series of important upcoming events. The price decline was mainly driven by expectations of a favorable US crop and the prospect of abundant global supply. However, some supportive factors from exports and trade expectations helped limit the price decline.

Agricultural product price list

Forecast models show the Midwest is entering a warm, dry period, ideal for accelerating soybean and corn plantings. Soybean plantings in the U.S. are 30% complete, ahead of the five-year average, according to the latest USDA data, raising expectations for a bumper crop.

The outlook for South American supplies is also adding to the pressure. Brazilian farmers are forecast to expand their plantings further in 2025-26, following a record 172 million tonne crop that just ended. Although Argentina’s harvest has been slower than average due to rain and high humidity, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange has raised its production forecast for the country due to better-than-expected yields. These factors have raised expectations that global supplies will remain high this year.

However, steady US soybean exports have helped the market maintain a relative balance, with sales reaching nearly 380,000 tonnes in the week ending May 1, equivalent to 96% of the USDA’s annual target. In addition, sales of 345,000 tonnes of new-crop soybeans to Pakistan on two consecutive days were a positive sign, partly offsetting the slowdown in imports from China.

On the policy front, expectations surrounding the US-China meeting in Switzerland and the May WASDE report have created a wait-and-see attitude in the market. Although, previously, mixed statements from President Trump and a tough response from China created many fluctuations, investors still expect these events to provide clearer direction for price trends in the following week.

Prices of some other goods