As the Nord Stream pipeline operator faces legal headaches in Europe, speculation about a gas partnership between the US and Russia is growing. Could Russian gas return to the Old Continent?
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| The starting point of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Russia. (Source: TASS/ZUMA) |
Would an American corporation be interested in buying or leasing a Russian gas pipeline?
“Well-founded” speculations?
There is speculation that the Nord Stream undersea gas pipeline, which leaked gas during attacks in September 2022, could emerge as part of a US-Russia energy deal following the ceasefire in Ukraine.
The Nord Stream pipeline operator is currently busy with legal proceedings in Germany and Switzerland to postpone bankruptcy proceedings. And so far, they have been successful.
Specifically, March 9 was the deadline for Nord Stream 2 AG (based in Switzerland, operator of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline) to pay off all its debts.
Earlier, the Swiss state court in Zug warned in a ruling that: “If this deadline is not met, the applicant will be declared bankrupt without any extension of time.”
The deadline has passed and Nord Stream 2 AG has not been declared bankrupt. Instead, the court extended the deadline to May 9. This is the second postponement of Nord Stream 2 AG's bankruptcy.
In January 2024, a Swiss court also extended the deadline for a subsidiary owned by Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom.
The unusual decisions have fueled speculation about the return of Nord Stream, which involves repairing three of the four 1,200-km pipelines damaged in a 2022 explosion. The cost of repairing the pipelines is estimated at between 500 million euros and 800 million euros.
In addition, a recent incident seems to further strengthen the above speculation when recording a lawsuit in the state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommen in northeastern Germany, where the underground pipeline was brought ashore.
Just before Christmas last year, savings bank Sparkasse immediately closed Nord Stream 2 accounts over concerns that they could be used for transactions that could trigger US sanctions against the financial institution.
When the local court rejected Nord Stream 2’s request to stop the account closure, the company’s lawyers filed an appeal with a higher court. However, the case is unlikely to be heard before mid-April.
Nord Stream lawyer Thorsten Zebich argued that the bank accounts were necessary for the company to pay at least 25 local businesses because the project still owed money for the pipeline. “We have to pay to avoid bankruptcy,” he said.
There has been growing speculation in recent weeks that a US-controlled consortium is interested in buying or leasing Russia's Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Leading German politicians have expressed concern about the idea of US-Russian energy cooperation on the territory of this Western European country.
“Selling Russian gas under American labels would strengthen the mental link between President Donald Trump and his supporters and the Kremlin,” said Roderich Kiesewetter, foreign policy spokesman for the Christian Democrats (CDU). “Nord Stream can never be part of a peace deal.”
Last month, Bild asked Richard Grennell, the former US ambassador to Germany and special envoy to the Trump administration, to confirm information from multiple sources that the former diplomat had been involved in negotiations between Washington and Moscow regarding Nord Stream.
“Just say I was involved in this nonsense,” said former Ambassador Grennell, calling it “fake news.”
Meanwhile, a spokesman for the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs noted that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline had never been certified for use. Chancellor Olaf Scholz canceled the certification procedure shortly after Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine (February 2022).
Will Europe return to Russian gas?
Just a few months ago, it would have been unthinkable for Russia to resume pumping gas to European countries. But now some on the continent are backing the idea. But the move faces both political and technical hurdles, and the medium-term benefits remain unclear.
What if Russian gas returns to Europe? The European Commission may have endorsed plans to phase out Russian gas entirely by 2027, but some are voicing their opposition. And the prospect of a peace deal in Ukraine is giving them ideas about energy supplies from Moscow.
Europe has significantly reduced its dependence on Russian gas since 2022, following Gazprom's decision to cut pipeline deliveries. Russian gas now accounts for about 14% of Europe's needs (down from more than 40% before the conflict in Ukraine - from February 2022).
Of that, 9% is transported by ship as liquefied natural gas (LNG), while 5% goes through the Turk Stream pipeline, which is the only pipeline still supplying gas to Eastern Europe – mainly Hungary – after the transit contract with Ukraine ends on December 31, 2024.
In Germany, some are raising the issue. Christof Gunther, head of the Leuna chemical plant in the former East Germany, recently told Bloomberg in an interview that importing Russian gas is the only way to revive entire sectors of German industry, such as the powerful chemical sector.
“Of course, if a peace agreement is reached in Ukraine, we will need to ensure that other damage caused by the conflict is repaired. Unlocking Russian gas to Germany would be a ‘logical outcome’ of peace,” he said.
This view of the head of the Leuna chemical plant has received support from the state's Minister of Economy, Mr. Saxony-Anhalt, although this official belongs to the CDU, a party that is generally opposed to buying back Russian gas.
Cost argument
In another sign of Russia’s growing presence in Europe, the Financial Times reported late last week that a close associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Matthias Warnig, a former Stasi spy who ran Nord Stream until 2023, is in talks with US investors to restart the pipeline linking Russia to Germany.
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| A sign indicates the way to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Lubmin, Germany. (Source: Reuters) |
"There may not even be a need to restart Nord Stream. By adding the capacity of Turk Stream and the pipeline through Ukraine, which is no longer used by Kiev and is not affected by the conflict, we can reach about 60 billion cubic meters per year," said Thierry Bros, professor at the Paris Institute of Political Studies (Sciences Po). This is close to Germany's annual consumption.
Russian gas certainly has one major advantage: price. Contracts in place until 2022 have set the price for Russian gas sold to Europeans at half the current spot market price. But the continent believes wholesale prices will fall in the next two to three years, with the introduction of LNG from the US and Qatar. Moreover, Europe is committed to increasing renewable energy production and reducing consumption.
If gas trade between Europe and Russia is to resume, it is necessary to first clarify the situation of the parties involved.
Since Gazprom stopped supplying the company, some of its customers have turned against the company and won court cases. For example, Austrian OMV and German Uniper were granted the right to sue Gazprom for more than $13 billion in damages last summer for failing to meet their commitments.
Meanwhile, France’s Engie is also looking into the issue. Germany’s RWE and Engie have both taken legal action and filed lawsuits against their former suppliers. For its part, Engie, one of Nord Stream’s creditors, has not ruled out continuing to buy gas from Russia, although it remains cautious. Engie CEO Catherine MacGregor called it “premature” during the company’s annual results presentation two weeks ago.
But, “if a Russia-Ukraine peace deal is reached, we will need to reassess the situation with our former suppliers. We still have contracts in place, even if they are subject to legal disputes,” she added.
CEO MacGregor believes there will be more work to be done in terms of contracts and logistics, especially since the infrastructure has been damaged.
“It will take time and in any case we will never fully return to the pre-crisis situation,” she said. “The key remains to diversify gas supplies for Europeans.” This is also the position of the European Union (EU), but some member states may choose to make their own decisions.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/thoa-thuan-hoa-binh-ukraine-nga-my-bi-mat-ban-hop-tac-khi-dot-de-hoi-sinh-nord-stream-dieu-gi-xay-ra-neu-tin-don-thanh-su-that-307481.html
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