The socio -economic situation in the third quarter and nine months continued to have a positive trend, with many industries and sectors achieving important results, contributing to creating growth momentum for the remaining months of the year.
On October 6, at the press conference announcing socio-economic statistics for the third quarter and the first nine months of 2024, Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong, Director General of the General Statistics Office, Ministry of Planning and Investment , said that the socio-economic situation in the third quarter and the first nine months continued to have a positive trend, with many important results achieved by sectors and fields, creating momentum for growth in the remaining months of the year.
Processing and manufacturing sector grows the most in 6 years
According to the General Statistics Office, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter is estimated to increase by 7.4% over the same period last year. Of which, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 2.58%. This increase is only higher than the growth rate of the same period in 2021 in the 2020-2024 period, contributing 4.08% to the total added value growth of the entire economy.
However, the industrial and construction sector increased by 9.11%, contributing 48.88%. In particular, the processing and manufacturing industry became a bright spot of the economy with a growth rate of 11.41%. This is also the highest growth rate of the same period in the past 6 years. In addition, the service sector increased by 7.51%, contributing 47.04%.
Regarding GDP use in the third quarter, final consumption increased by 7.02% over the same period last year and contributed 59.78% to the overall growth rate of the economy. Asset accumulation increased by 7.08%, contributing 39.03%, exports of goods and services increased by 15.68%; imports of goods and services increased by 15.84% and the difference between exports and imports of goods and services contributed 1.19%.
Thus, the nine-month GDP is estimated to increase by 6.82% over the same period in 2023. Of which, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 3.20%, contributing 5.37% to the total added value of the whole economy; the industry and construction sector increased by 8.19%, contributing 46.22%; the service sector increased by 6.95%, contributing 48.41%.
Specifically, Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong pointed out that the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector was severely affected by storm No. 3 in September 2024, so its growth was lower than the same period in previous years. Therefore, the added value of the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector in the first nine months increased by only 3.2% and was only higher than the growth rate of the same period in 2020 (in the period 2020-2024). In particular, the added value of the agricultural sector increased by 2.92% over the same period last year, contributing 0.25 percentage points to the growth rate of the total added value of the entire economy. The forestry sector increased by 4.96% but accounted for a low proportion, so it only contributed 0.03 percentage points. The fishery sector increased by 3.73%, contributing 0.1 percentage points.
In the industrial and construction sector, Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong said that production in many key industries increased sharply compared to the same period last year. Accordingly, the added value of the entire industrial sector in the first nine months increased by 8.34% compared to the same period last year, contributing 2.71 percentage points to the growth rate of the total added value of the entire economy. Along with that, the trade, tourism and transportation sectors maintained their growth momentum, contributing positively to the growth of the entire economy. The added value of the service sector in the first nine months of the year increased by 6.95% compared to the same period last year.
Global economic growth prospects increase
In general, Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong said that the world situation continues to change in a complex, rapid and unpredictable manner with many risks and instabilities. Specifically, strategic competition between major countries is becoming increasingly fierce, geopolitical tensions and military conflicts are escalating in some countries, affecting peace and stability in the world, and weakening the trade, investment, production and consumption systems. In addition, natural disasters and extreme weather have seriously affected people's lives and the socio-economic development of countries.
However, after many fluctuations, the General Statistics Office's leaders shared that the world economy is gradually stabilizing as global trade in goods improves again, inflationary pressures gradually decrease, financial conditions continue to loosen, and labor supply increases. Accordingly, the world economy tends to recover but slowly. Specifically, in September, most international organizations raised their global economic growth outlook by 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points compared to previous forecasts, reaching 2.7% to 3.2%, equivalent to growth in 2023.
Specifically, the United Nations forecasts global economic growth at 2.7%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the January 2024 forecast. Fitch Ratings (FR) believes that global economic growth in 2024 will reach 2.7%, up 0.1 percentage points from its June forecast. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecasts 3.2%, 0.1 percentage points higher than its May forecast. However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also forecasts 3.2%, unchanged from its April forecast.
In the region, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts Singapore's growth at 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage points, while Thailand's is at 2.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from its July forecast. Countries that maintain their growth forecasts are Malaysia at 4.5%, Indonesia at 5.0% and the Philippines at 6%.
For Vietnam, the World Bank forecasts GDP growth at 6.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from its June 2024 forecast, the Asian Development Bank forecasts 6% (unchanged from its July forecast) and the IMF expects 6.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from its April forecast.
Regarding the domestic situation, Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong emphasized that storm No. 3 has caused a lot of damage to people, property, socio-economic infrastructure and agricultural, forestry and fishery production in the northern provinces. In that situation, with the determination to quickly overcome the consequences of storms and floods, soon stabilize people's lives, promote production and business recovery, maintain macroeconomic stability, and actively promote economic growth, the Government and the Prime Minister resolutely directed ministries, branches and localities to continue implementing the solutions set out in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP dated January 5, 2024, Resolution No. 02/NQ-CP dated January 55, 2024, Resolution of the regular monthly Government meeting, Resolution No. 143/NQ-CP dated September 17, 2024.
“On that basis, ministries, branches and localities have closely monitored the fluctuations of the world and domestic economic situation, and at the same time made efforts to carry out the assigned tasks and solutions, thereby creating trust and support from the people and the business community,” Ms. Huong said./.
Source
Comment (0)