Is President Putin waiting for Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris?
Báo Dân trí•01/11/2024
(Dan Tri) - There has been much speculation about which candidate Russian President Vladimir Putin will support to win this year's US election.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (center) and two US presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris (Photo: Getty). At an economic forum in Vladivostok in September, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded with a smile when asked about the US presidential election. Speaking at the event in the eastern Russian city, Putin joked that his "favorite" was US President Joe Biden, but since Biden was no longer in the race, the Russian leader was backing Vice President Kamala Harris. Putin told the audience that he liked the Democratic candidate's "smile" and that he respected President Biden's choice to support Harris as his successor. Putin recalled that he had previously expressed his support for Biden. However, since Biden had urged his supporters to support Harris, Moscow would do the same and back the vice president in November. The Kremlin chief had previously said that he preferred Biden to Trump because Biden was a more predictable politician than the Republican candidate. Putin added that Harris often smiles and is able to spread joy, which shows that "everything is going well for her." Putin said Harris' positive attitude meant she would not impose as many sanctions on Russia as former US President Donald Trump. According to Putin, Trump has imposed more sanctions on Russia than any other president in US history. "Ultimately, the choice belongs to the American people and we will respect their final decision," he said. The outcome of the November 5 election is important for Russia, with analysts saying that neither Harris nor Trump are seen as capable of mending the strained US-Russia relationship. Harris has maintained a tough stance against Moscow, while Trump, despite his admiration for President Putin, has imposed sanctions on Russia during his presidency. Timothy Colton, president of the Harvard Institute for International and Regional Studies, said Trump may be slightly more favored by the Kremlin because he is better known and not a newcomer. However, Colton said that from Russia's perspective, "nothing good is going to happen in the upcoming US election." What will happen to aid to Ukraine? Since Russia launched its military campaign in Ukraine in early 2022, the US has provided Kiev with more than $59.5 billion in weapons and aid. Harris is expected to continue the Biden administration's large military and economic aid program to Ukraine as Russia's military campaign continues into its third year. Meanwhile, Trump has boasted that his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the respect he has from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are so strong that he could help negotiate an end to the conflict "in 24 hours." Mr Trump has declined to detail his strategy, but his recent criticism of sanctions in general suggests he could lift sanctions against Russia as an incentive to help resolve the conflict. During the presidential debate, Mr Trump twice declined to directly answer whether he wanted Ukraine to win the conflict, while Ms Harris praised Western support for Kiev and urged the West to continue providing aid. Mr Trump’s running mate, Republican vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance, has offered some hints of Mr Trump’s vision, including Ukraine demilitarizing Russian-controlled territories and agreeing to permanent neutrality. Those terms would be difficult for Kiev to accept, but Mr Trump has shown little sympathy for Ukraine, saying that President Zelensky “should never have let that conflict start”. Ms Harris has not said how her position would differ from that of Mr Biden. She has previously said it would be unwise to risk the global alliances the US has built and criticized President Putin. "A Harris victory is likely to continue US support for Ukraine, as long as the administration can maintain congressional support," the International Crisis Group predicted, suggesting that Harris could seek to end the war more aggressively than Biden. Growing congressional controversy over massive aid to Ukraine could hamper or reshape Harris' strategy. How would NATO be affected? Mr Trump has argued with other members of the NATO alliance, demanding that they meet agreed spending levels on their militaries in their national budgets. Mr Trump said that as president, he had warned leaders that not only would he refuse to defend countries that failed to meet their budget targets, but that Russia could "do whatever it wanted" to such countries. Mr Trump has also questioned the NATO charter's mutual defence clause. Ms Harris said the US commitment to NATO remains steadfast. However, the vice president has not weighed in on whether she would support Ukraine's membership in the alliance. The fate of arms control with Russia The last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between Moscow and Washington, New START, expires in 2026, a year after the new US administration took office, and the treaty's prospects are in doubt. Mr Biden moved quickly to extend the treaty after taking office, and Harris is expected to follow suit with support for the pact that limits the number of intercontinental nuclear missile launchers. Russia suspended its participation in the treaty in 2023, but has not withdrawn, and the US has retaliated with measures including stopping sharing information about the location and status of missile systems. Mr Trump has warned of the threat of "nuclear warmongering". But he has taken steps while in office to dismantle the arms control regime, including withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which banned nuclear and conventional ground-launched missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers. While in office, Trump has called for a new nuclear treaty that would include Russia and China.
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