Ukraine may be preparing a 'winter surprise' for Russia

Volunteers wishing to join the 3rd Independent Assault Brigade of Ukraine conduct basic training in Kiev region (Photo: Sky News).

In a few weeks, the weather in Ukraine will turn wet and gradually turn cold in December.

"The easiest time to make a major breakthrough on the battlefield is about to pass and Ukraine will not be able to make a big enough advance to impress its Western backers, especially with the war in Gaza drawing attention away from Ukraine," Michael Clarke, a defence analyst, wrote on Sky News .

But on the other hand, Ukraine will certainly not stop fighting in the winter and they have also weakened Russian forces to a significant extent.

So Ukraine still has the potential to make a breakthrough in winter when the ground freezes, allowing armored vehicles to continue on their way and spread out in open ground.

Regardless, Ukrainian forces may soon need a break to rotate troops and re-equip some key units, in preparation for the next phase, Clarke said.

After failing to make a significant breakthrough in the summer, Ukraine may be hoping to pull off some sort of surprise in the winter, if only to convince the West that Kiev can eventually expel most or all of the Russian forces from its occupied territory.

But there is no doubt that the coming months will be difficult for Kiev, both militarily and politically , according to Mr Clarke.

The Ukraine conflict has lasted more than 600 days with no sign of ending, as the two sides have not achieved many significant breakthroughs in recent times.

Russia appears to be preparing for a long-term conflict, as evidenced by its plans to sharply increase defense spending in 2024. Meanwhile, much-needed military aid to Kiev is at risk of being disrupted as Western countries are distracted by the Hamas-Israel conflict.

As Ukraine’s counteroffensive that began in June has stalled, Russian forces launched their biggest offensive in months on October 10 to seize the frontline town of Avdiivka, with thousands of troops backed by armored vehicles. After nearly two weeks of fierce fighting, Russia has failed to make a breakthrough in Avdiika.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/ukraine-co-the-dang-chuan-bi-bat-ngo-mua-dong-cho-nga-20231023202459484.htm