Ukrainian soldiers fight in Bakhmut (Photo: Getty).
Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Russian private military organization Wagner, said on April 21 that the Ukrainian army will eventually launch a counterattack, but this plan is unlikely to happen at the present time for a number of reasons.
“(Ukraine) cannot launch an offensive right now for quite understandable reasons: melting snow and terrible mud. Even pickup trucks cannot move freely on this terrain, let alone heavy vehicles and tanks. It will take about 10 days for the ground to dry out,” Prigozhin said.
"When will they start counterattacking? They will probably decide that themselves. They don't inform us, but eventually they will start counterattacking. That's why we have to be 100 percent prepared," Wagner chief declared.
Andrey Marochko, a retired lieutenant colonel of the self-proclaimed Lugansk People's Republic (LPR) militia, also said that the Ukrainian government's armed forces will not be able to counterattack in the next two weeks due to unfavorable weather conditions.
"After visiting the Donetsk region, I can confirm that unfavorable weather conditions will prevent the enemy from launching a full-scale counteroffensive operation for at least the next two weeks. This counteroffensive is also unlikely to take place in the direction of Kupyansk and Krasny Liman," the LPR officer wrote on Telegram.
According to Mr. Marochko, the enemy could not conduct "comprehensive reconnaissance" due to low clouds, while heavy rainfall "turned many stretches of land into impassable swamps", making it impossible for heavy armored vehicles to move on muddy roads.
"Our positions have been significantly strengthened recently, forcing the enemy in case of attack to use all its great resources to prevent our breakthroughs," Marochko said.
US officials predict that Ukraine could launch a major counterattack around late April or early May. That is why Washington and its allies are trying to speed up weapons aid to Ukraine before Russia can launch a new attack.
Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said in March that the Ukrainian military’s counteroffensive could begin in about two months. He added that the Ukrainian military would first focus on trying to maintain control of the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk province.
Bakhmut has been the most heavily fought front in Ukraine in recent months. According to the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukraine may conduct a small tactical withdrawal in Bakhmut, partly to preserve resources for the upcoming counteroffensive.
According to recently leaked classified US documents, Western equipment and other support are pouring into Ukraine ahead of a counteroffensive scheduled to begin on April 30. According to the document, the counteroffensive “will be undertaken by the Ukrainian 10th Combat Corps,” which consists of nine brigades equipped and trained by the US and its allies. Analysts estimate that a Ukrainian brigade consists of about 4,000-5,000 soldiers.
Assessing Ukraine's chances of a counterattack, Czech President Petr Pavel said that the window of opportunity for Ukraine will only open until the end of this year. He argued that as the 2024 US presidential election approaches, Washington's support for Kiev is likely to gradually decrease, leading European countries to follow suit.
Source
Comment (0)