In the next 10 years, Southeast Asia, thanks to its demographic advantage and the shift of the global supply chain, could surpass China in economic growth and foreign direct investment. 
According to the Southeast Asia Outlook 2024-2034 report released on August 1 by the non-profit organization Angsana Council, the US consulting firm Bain & Co. and Singapore's DBS Bank, Southeast Asia could surpass China in economic growth and foreign direct investment in the next 10 years, thanks to its demographic advantage and the shift of the global supply chain.
The report forecasts that the average annual growth rate of the six key economies in the region – Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam – will reach 5.1% until 2034. This growth rate exceeds the forecast growth rate of 3.5-4.5% for China during the same period.
Vietnam is forecast to lead the way with the highest growth rate of 6.6%, followed by the Philippines at 6.1%. Singapore's economy is estimated to grow more modestly at 2.5%, the lowest of the six economies mentioned above.
Charles Ormiston, consulting partner at Bain and chairman of the Angsana Council, highlighted strong domestic growth and diversification of production outside of China as key drivers.
The report also said that foreign investment growth in Southeast Asia will remain strong. In 2023, the six economies attracted $206 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI), surpassing China’s $42.7 billion for the first time in a decade.
This trend is expected to continue, with China likely to become Southeast Asia's largest investor.
According to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat, the US is the region's largest source of FDI in 2022, with $37 billion, accounting for 16.5% of total FDI.
Japan came in second with $27 billion, while China came in third with $15 billion.
Among the six economies, Singapore ranks first with the highest FDI per capita, while Indonesia and the Philippines have the lowest. However, the FDI growth rate in these two countries during the period 2018-2022 is the highest.
Malaysia has the lowest FDI growth rate, but is committed to making efforts to reverse this trend.
Although China’s real GDP is forecast to reach 154 trillion yuan ($21 trillion) by 2034, about five times the combined GDP of the six Southeast Asian economies mentioned above, the region’s strategic investment will lead to remarkable growth.
The report highlights the importance of investing in emerging sectors, developing startup ecosystems and strengthening capital markets.
Among the newer growth areas, Thailand and Indonesia are emerging as regional hubs for the electric vehicle supply chain.
Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam are expanding semiconductor manufacturing across different parts of the value chain, amid rising investment in data centers in the region.
Source vietnam+
Source: https://baophutho.vn/asean-co-the-vuot-trung-quoc-ve-tang-truong-gdp-va-dau-tu-nuoc-ngoai-216503.htm
Comment (0)