Balancing capital channels – a key challenge for sustainable growth.

At the thematic session "Finance and Banking" of the Vietnam Economic Forum 2025, Outlook 2026 (VEPF), delegates emphasized that the banking system has made great efforts to mobilize resources on a very large scale to support the economy. However, over-reliance on bank credit also poses risks, especially to the safety of the system, particularly during peak periods such as the end of the year.

Credit - the primary channel for capital flow in the economy.

According to the Deputy Governor, since the beginning of 2025, the Party and State have issued many important resolutions, most notably the group of resolutions considered strategic pillars for the new development phase, including policies on the development of science and technology, innovation and digital transformation; promoting international integration; perfecting legal institutions; as well as developing the private economic sector. These orientations are creating new momentum, mobilizing the synchronized participation of the political system, the business community, the people, and the intellectual workforce.

"One of the crucial challenges for achieving high growth targets is ensuring sufficient capital for the economy, while also using it effectively to promote a growth model based on science and innovation," Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha pointed out.

In this process, bank credit continues to play a key role as the main channel for capital flow in the economy, focusing on supporting production and business activities in priority sectors. Sharing specific details about the State Bank of Vietnam's (SBV) operational solutions, Ms. Ha Thu Giang, Director of the Department of Credit for Economic Sectors, stated that the banking sector has implemented many comprehensive solutions, thereby further affirming bank credit as the main channel for capital flow in the economy. The focus is on restructuring repayment terms and maintaining the same debt classification for customers facing difficulties due to the pandemic, natural disasters, or the decline in production and business. As a result, approximately 1.3 million customers have had their debts restructured, with the value of principal and interest amounting to approximately 1 trillion VND; during the Covid-19 period alone, credit institutions reduced interest for customers by about 50 trillion VND.

Simultaneously, sector-specific credit programs have been expanded as directed by the Government. Credit for agriculture, forestry, and fisheries reached VND 185 trillion (with 4 adjustments to increase scale), with disbursement reaching approximately 94%; the rice-farming linkage loan program under Decision 1490/QD-TTg has accumulated nearly VND 3,000 billion in disbursements over 5 months by the end of October 2025. The bank-enterprise connection program has been widely implemented with approximately 1,800 dialogue sessions since the beginning of 2025. Policy credit reached over VND 398 trillion, supporting more than 6.8 million people. By November 27, 2025, outstanding credit exceeded VND 18.2 million trillion, an increase of 16.56% compared to the end of 2024, focusing on priority sectors and key infrastructure projects.

The financial market needs to develop in a more balanced and sustainable direction.

Despite positive achievements, banking credit activities are facing numerous difficulties and challenges. Ms. Ha Thu Giang pointed out that the pressure to supply capital to the economy remains high in the context of an unevenly developed financial market, while the corporate bond market and the stock market still face many difficulties and have not fully played their role as the main channel for supplying medium and long-term capital to the economy.

Dr. Nguyen Quoc Hung – Vice President and General Secretary of the Vietnam Banking Association – emphasized that in recent times, the banking system has made great efforts to mobilize resources on a very large scale to support the economy.

Regarding capital issues, Dr. Nguyen Quoc Hung – Vice President and General Secretary of the Vietnam Banking Association – emphasized that in recent times, the banking system has made great efforts to mobilize resources on a very large scale to support the economy. However, over-reliance on bank credit also poses risks, especially to system safety and liquidity, particularly during peak periods such as the end of the year. He also noted that interest rates are likely to adjust in the coming period, thereby impacting business operations and investment costs for enterprises. At the same time, in the context of banks gradually moving towards higher safety standards such as Basel III, the challenge of balancing resources to both support growth and meet international safety requirements is becoming increasingly difficult.

Based on the above reality, the connection and complementarity between budget capital through public investment and bank credit is seen as a key factor. Dr. Nguyen Quoc Hung believes that budget capital through public investment needs to go hand in hand with bank capital, creating support for production and business enterprises, thereby contributing to realizing the goal of high and sustainable growth, while supporting macroeconomic stability.

Further clarifying the pressure in balancing capital sources, especially the issue of medium and long-term capital, Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV and Member of the Prime Minister's Policy Advisory Council, analyzed that Vietnam's capital channel structure still heavily relies on bank credit. According to him, in the first nine months of this year, credit accounted for over 57% of the total capital supplied to the economy, while fundraising channels through the stock and bond markets have not met expectations and should have played a larger role in sharing the burden of capital supply and reducing pressure on the banking system.

Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV Bank, Member of the Prime Minister's Policy Advisory Council.

According to Dr. Can Van Luc, Vietnam's bank credit-to-GDP ratio is currently very high, reaching 135.7% of GDP in 2024 and projected to reach approximately 147% in 2025, significantly higher than the world average and the group of middle-income countries. Meanwhile, the size of the new stock market is equivalent to about 73% of GDP, while the privately issued corporate bond market only reaches about 7.62% of GDP, much lower than other countries in the region. Therefore, it is necessary to balance the structure of capital channels, with the capital market needing to be developed more proportionally to reduce the economy's excessive dependence on bank credit, especially for medium and long-term capital needs.

According to Dr. Can Van Luc, the financial market needs to be developed in a more balanced and sustainable direction, focusing on promoting the role of the capital market and financial derivatives market to share the burden of capital supply with the banking system. Along with that, it is necessary to diversify financial institutions such as leasing, investment funds, pension funds, REITs, etc., gradually forming a complete financial ecosystem that better meets the medium and long-term capital needs of the economy. He also proposed piloting a carbon market soon, promoting the formation of an international financial center, developing the cryptocurrency market, and decisively implementing the roadmap for upgrading the stock market. In parallel with market-related solutions, maintaining macroeconomic stability, strengthening investor confidence, diversifying investment channels, and substantially improving the investment and business environment are considered key conditions for more effectively mobilizing and allocating social resources for socio-economic development.

Sharing the same view, Deputy Minister of Finance Do Thanh Trung stated that the capital market needs to be further strengthened and developed to truly become the main channel for mobilizing medium and long-term resources for the economy, thereby gradually reducing pressure on the banking credit system, while enhancing the transparency and safety of the market. Besides financial and monetary solutions, improving the operational efficiency of state-owned enterprises and creating a favorable environment for the private sector are identified as important factors in promoting growth. At the same time, the investment and business environment also needs to be continuously improved so that the private sector truly becomes the most important driving force of growth and innovation.

Furthermore, the Ministry of Finance leadership also recognizes that strengthening close coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is a key factor in ensuring macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and supporting high growth amidst increasing risks. In particular, institutional reform and the creation of a transparent and stable legal environment are identified as fundamental and decisive solutions to retain financial resources and attract businesses, especially long-term strategic investors, to Vietnam.

According to Dr. Can Van Luc, Vietnam needs to simultaneously improve all three aspects: resource mobilization, allocation, and utilization. The focus should be on perfecting the financial market institutions, strengthening financial safety supervision; promoting digital transformation, Fintech, cashless payments, digital assets, and fostering green, sustainable, and inclusive finance.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/can-bang-cac-kenh-dan-von-bai-toan-then-chot-cho-tang-truong-ben-vung-175233.html