What will happen to stocks after approaching the 1,500 point peak?

The past trading week ended with positive developments in the Vietnamese stock market.

The bustling cash flow into stocks shows positive investor sentiment - Photo: QUANG DINH

VN-Index had 3/5 sessions increasing by more than 10 points, ending the week at 1,497.28 points, a total increase of nearly 40 points (2.71%) compared to the previous week.

Since the beginning of the year, the VN-Index has increased by nearly 18%. According to experts, cash flow into stocks is being supported by many factors despite high profit-taking pressure.

Cash flow is vibrant, liquidity is nearly 40,000 billion VND

VN-Index has been moving with a large amplitude in the past week and at one point surpassed the 1,500 mark. Market liquidity exploded, reaching nearly 34,000 billion VND per session, reflecting the excitement of cash flow and positive sentiment from investors.

Strong cash flow circulated among leading sectors including banking, real estate, securities and retail, creating a solid growth momentum for the index.

During the last sessions of the week on July 18, VN-Index experienced many fluctuations. After reaching 1,500 points, it turned to "cool down", facing profit-taking pressure after a long increase with high liquidity of nearly 40,000 billion VND.

The banking group recorded an impressive comeback after a few sluggish sessions at the beginning of the week. On the contrary, profit-taking pressure increased in real estate and securities stocks - groups that have increased rapidly recently.

Ms. Thai Phuong Thao - analyst of Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) - commented that VN-Index tends to move with a large amplitude in the past trading week and tries to maintain the upward momentum in terms of points when large-cap stocks such as VIC (Vingroup), VHM (Vinhomes), MSN ( Masan ), TCB (Techcombank), VPB (VPBank) take turns increasing points.

"The bustling cash flow circulates through stock groups to seek profits with decisive moves. The occurrence of fluctuations in the upward trend to high score thresholds of the general index is inevitable," VCBS experts commented.

Expect to establish a new price zone

Speaking with Tuoi Tre , Mr. Do Bao Ngoc - Deputy General Director of Vietnam Construction Securities - commented that the Vietnamese stock market is recording strong buying power from both domestic and foreign investors.

This abundant cash flow has helped VN-Index break out, approaching the important resistance level of 1,500 points in recent times.

Compared to the 2021-2022 period, Mr. Ngoc said that the current market has many similarities when interest rates are low and monetary policy is loose, promoting cash flow into risky asset channels.

However, the current context is assessed more positively thanks to practical fiscal policies, especially public investment disbursement increased by about 40% in the first half of the year, contributing to supporting economic growth of nearly 8%.

In addition, the market upgrading process is also showing positive signs, promising to attract strong international capital flows, creating momentum for VN-Index to surpass old peaks and establish a new high price zone.

Mr. Nguyen Anh Khoa, Director of Analysis and Research at Agribank Securities (Agriseco), said that the recent excitement of the stock market has not only brought profits to investors but also contributed significantly to mobilizing capital for the economy.

According to Mr. Khoa, when the VN-Index increases sharply, investor sentiment improves, market liquidity increases, this is a favorable condition for businesses to promote capital mobilization plans through stock issuance. This is also a basic requirement for successful issuance.

"The stock market is not only a place to trade stocks but also a channel for medium and long-term capital for businesses, reducing dependence on bank credit," he emphasized.

However, in the first 6 months of this year, the stock market was gloomy, trading was less active, and there were no listed businesses.

Forecasting that from now until the end of the year, the expert expects capital mobilization activities through the stock market to flourish again when the economy grows strongly, many stimulus solutions are promoted and the demand for expanding production and business increases.

"Many businesses will need to prepare capital to increase capacity and boost investment, and the stock market is an important choice in this context," said Mr. Khoa.

Experts believe that with high liquidity, the market continues to attract great attention, opening up room for the VN-Index to reach new milestones this year, not just stopping at 1,500 points.

Still have the mentality of taking profits early

According to experts, when the index approaches or exceeds the 1,500 point mark, profit-taking pressure during the session may increase, leading to normal corrections.

Mr. Do Bao Ngoc said that a major limitation of Vietnamese investors is the psychology of taking profits early when the index or stock reaches a historical peak.

"Over the past three years, many investors have failed to maximize their profits because they rushed to sell when stocks peaked," he said.

The cause of this psychology comes from the market structure, when individual investors account for 80-90% of total transactions, along with the habit of using high margin, making price fluctuations even stronger.

Regarding investment strategy, Mr. Ngoc emphasized that the most important thing is to choose stocks with good business results, positive prospects this year, prices that have not increased too much and still maintain reasonable valuations.

He recommends that investors take advantage of corrections in an uptrend to disburse funds, while managing their portfolios closely and adhering to the principle of cutting losses when stocks fall beyond the allowable threshold (about 5-10%).

In addition, he warned investors to limit FOMO (fear of missing out) and avoid buying stocks that have increased in price but do not have a solid fundamental foundation, because "these stocks will often decrease before the market enters a correction phase".

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BINH KHANH

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/chung-khoan-se-ra-sao-sau-khi-ap-sat-dinh-1-500-diem-20250718223703548.htm