Regarding the VN-Index falling nearly 88 points in the trading session on April 3, expert Phan Manh Ha, Business Director of VnDirect, commented that it was the result of the information that the US announced a 46% reciprocal tax on Vietnam's exports. Although it is not official and Vietnam still has 1 week to negotiate, this information still strongly affects investor sentiment.
However, Mr. Ha is not too pessimistic about the above developments and predicts that this panic will soon end in the next few days.
“Even if the US policy takes effect immediately, it will only affect a few specific industries such as seafood, steel, garment, footwear, and accessories exported to the US. The finance, banking, and real estate industries will not be affected much. Looking at the liquidity on April 3 with more than 4,000 billion, I think that the trading session on April 3 cannot become a bearish cycle.
Therefore, in just a few days, especially after the Hung Kings' death anniversary holiday, the market will return to normal," said Mr. Ha.
Vietnam's stock market is expected to recover soon. (Illustration photo).
Mr. Ha further analyzed that Vietnam's trade surplus with the US is mostly in the electronics industry. Meanwhile, this industry group is mostly FDI enterprises and mainly creates jobs for Vietnamese workers, tax collection or transfer pricing is not much.
Meanwhile, for processing industries such as garments, businesses have signed export contracts until March 2026, so they are not expected to be affected immediately. Currently, only the steel and seafood industries will be directly affected if the US tariff policy is forced to be implemented.
"However, it must be admitted that the news that the US imposed tariffs on Vietnamese goods also caused panic among investors, causing a domino chain reaction and a group of "followers", Mr. Ha stated his opinion.
Mr. Ha optimistically predicted that after the next one or two sessions, the market will calm down and investors will continue to buy stocks. “The stock market will soon recover because the Vietnamese government has negotiated policies to support businesses,” Mr. Ha said.
Sharing the same view, Mr. Nguyen The Minh - Director of Research and Development of individual customers of Yuanta Securities Vietnam - also said that the imposition of tax on Vietnamese goods imported into the US will first of all affect investor psychology and will cause strong market fluctuations in the short term.
However, according to Mr. Minh, this impact will not last long and the market may reverse later.
" Firstly, there is still no specific tax rate for each item. Second, Vietnam still has time to negotiate to reduce the tax rate ," Mr. Minh explained.
Mr. Minh cited that in history, Mr. Trump has issued very high tariff policies many times, then through negotiations they have reduced them and hopefully this time will be the same. Besides, Vietnam also has plans to negotiate with the US and it is highly likely that it will be beneficial for Vietnam.
“The impact on the stock market is real and the market will react very quickly and then reverse to increase in the next few sessions. Because the current low valuation is also a way to stimulate cash flow to return to catch the bottom,” said Mr. Minh.
According to Mr. Minh, in the history of Vietnamese stocks, there have been sessions where the market fell by 6% and then reversed and increased rapidly. Most importantly, Mr. Trump's tariff policy this time is not the last policy.
"It is highly likely that we have a positive scenario in the coming time, so the market will quickly react to the decline and will end the decline in the following days," said Mr. Minh.
Source: https://vtcnews.vn/chuyen-gia-chung-khoan-viet-nam-se-som-qua-con-hoang-loan-ar935616.html
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