Global coffee prices fell slightly on both the New York and London futures exchanges due to continued pressure from major producers and exporters to sell new crops. In particular, the new harvest of Brazil - the world's largest producer and exporter of coffee - is forecast to be a record crop. Meanwhile, the country's local currency - Real - has fallen against the USD, contributing to encouraging farmers to boost sales, putting downward pressure on Arabica coffee prices.
In its latest weekly report, the world's largest coffee cooperative Cooxupé said its members had harvested 34.60% of their crop, up from 25.72% at the same time last year, thanks to dry weather that facilitated drying and improved bean quality.
However, ICE London inventories fell by 50 tonnes, or 0.05%, to 73,900 tonnes. This information helped to curb the decline in Robusta coffee prices.
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| Domestic coffee prices today, July 6, continued to decrease by 200 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Rodeo West) |
At the end of the trading session on July 5, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London continued to decrease slightly. The price of robusta coffee futures for September 2023 delivery decreased by 15 USD, trading at 2,512 USD/ton. The price of November delivery decreased by 17 USD, trading at 2,414 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange for September 2023 delivery decreased by 1.6 cents, trading at 158.9 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2023 delivery period decreased by 1.55 cents, trading at 158.15 cents/lb. Trading volume increased.
Domestic coffee prices today, July 6, continued to decrease by 200 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.
Unit: VND/kg. (Source: Giacaphe.com) |
Technical analysis of the robusta market shows that the indicators are still showing signs of bearish momentum. It is expected that in the short term, robusta coffee prices will fluctuate and accumulate within the range of 2500 - 2550. Robusta prices need to increase beyond 2550 to find an opportunity to increase back to the psychological resistance level of 2600.
On the contrary, it is necessary to pay attention to the price range of 2495 - 2500. If it falls below this range, robusta coffee prices may establish a downtrend.
In the Arabica market, yesterday's upward correction temporarily interrupted the downward trend of Arabica coffee prices. However, technical indicators all show that the downward momentum is still there.
It is expected that in the short term, the price may continue to decrease to probe the support zone of 155 - 157. However, it is not possible to rule out the possibility of a technical recovery correction soon because the price is near the oversold zone.
According to estimates from the Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ), Vietnam's coffee exports in June 2023 reached 150 thousand tons, worth 392 million USD. Compared to May, this figure remained almost unchanged in volume and increased by 2% in value.
In the first 6 months of 2023, coffee exports reached more than 1 million tons, worth 2.4 billion USD, down 2.2% in volume but up 3% in value over the same period last year. The average export price of coffee is estimated at 2,367 USD/ton, up 5.2% over the first half of last year.
Thus, in the 9 months of the 2022-2023 crop year (from October 2022 to September 2023), Vietnam exported more than 1.4 million tons of coffee. In addition, the domestic market is estimated to consume about 200,000 tons for the whole crop year. Meanwhile, coffee output is estimated to decrease by 10-15% compared to the 2021-2022 crop year to 1.6-1.5 million tons, according to data from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA). Thus, the current inventory is very small, even adding the overlapping inventory from the previous crop of about 100,000 tons.
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