Coffee prices turn sharply down, money flows away from precious metals

Red covers the industrial raw materials market

According to MXV, red dominated the industrial raw material market in yesterday's trading session. In particular, the price of Arabica coffee for July contract on the ICE US exchange decreased by 3.07% to 8,042 USD/ton; the price of Robusta coffee for the same term on the ICE EU exchange decreased by 2.32% to 5,010 USD/ton.

The decline was largely driven by a series of forecasts for rising global supplies, with Conab raising its forecast for Brazil’s 2025-26 coffee production to 55.7 million bags, up 2.7% from the previous year – a record high for a year in the low-production cycle. At the same time, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) also forecast a 2.6% increase in coffee exports from Honduras and Uganda, with El Salvador recording a slight increase, prompting the market to reconsider its supply outlook in the coming period.

In addition, coffee inventories continued to increase sharply, becoming a direct factor putting pressure on prices. According to ICE, Robusta inventories reached 4,626 lots - the highest level in 7.5 months, Arabica inventories reached 844,473 bags (60 kg), the highest level in nearly 3 months. Of which, 91.4% of Arabica is stored in Europe, mostly Brazilian coffee, and the amount of coffee awaiting classification also continued to increase, reflecting abundant supply in the market.

Another notable development in the industrial raw material market was that the July cotton futures contract lost its upward momentum after the surge at the beginning of the week on Monday, when news of the temporary suspension of tariffs between the US and China for 90 days. Accordingly, the July cotton contract on the ICE US exchange continued to fall by another 1.21%, to $1,443/ton.

USDA’s latest Supply-Demand Report shows that US cotton stocks/use in 2025-26 is forecast at 36.6%, still high despite a slight decline, while Brazil’s cotton production is forecast to increase.

Planting in the U.S. has been delayed by rain, especially in the Delta. West Texas has dried out, which is good for planting. In China, India and Pakistan, favorable weather conditions have supported cotton planting.

Money flows out of precious metals

Yesterday's trading session saw a clear divergence in the metal market. Improved market sentiment thanks to the positive US economic outlook reduced demand for safe havens, causing both precious metals to close in the red. On the contrary, the base metals group was under pressure as concerns about supply began to emerge, affecting price movements during the session.

At the end of the session, silver price fell 1.98% to 32.44 USD/ounce, platinum price lost 1.11% to 981.2 USD/ounce.

Following the temporary tariff suspension agreement between the US and China, a series of major investment banks, such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Barclays, have revised down their forecasts for the US economic recession and raised their growth forecasts. This has cooled down the investment sentiment towards safe-haven assets and shifted money to other assets, thereby weakening the price of silver.

In the base metals group, COMEX copper prices fell sharply by 1.54% to $10,252/ton amid cautious market sentiment. In addition, positive supply signals also contributed to the decline in copper prices.

In contrast, iron ore prices rebounded strongly by 2.33% to $101.83/ton due to concerns about shrinking supply.

Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/gia-ca-phe-quay-dau-giam-manh-dong-tien-dich-chuyen-khoi-kim-loai-quy-102250515094359051.htm