Domestic coffee prices maintain their upward trend; what is the forecast for robusta prices?

Robusta coffee prices rose significantly last week due to crop concerns in Vietnam after weather forecasters from Dak Lak said on Friday that Vietnam's main coffee-producing region, the Central Highlands, is expected to experience more hot weather and less rainfall between March 21 and 31.

Coffee prices today, March 24, 2025

World coffee prices ended the week with robusta futures for May 2025 delivery rising by $118/tonne; arabica futures for May 2025 delivery rising by 12.95 cents/lb.

Domestic coffee prices continued to rise by an average of 2,000-3,000 VND/kg last week, compared to an average increase of 1,000-2,000 VND/kg the previous week. Current domestic coffee prices range from 132,900 to 134,000 VND/kg.

Over the past two weeks, robusta coffee prices have risen continuously, by more than $150 per ton. Currently, the market is heavily reliant on supply from Vietnam. Vietnamese coffee has a monopoly on the global market because Brazil is also out of stock. Therefore, coffee prices remain high. News of drought in Dak Lak has raised concerns about its impact on Vietnam's next crop yield, which has also fueled the rise in robusta prices.

However, some industry experts predict a major shift could occur after May, when Brazil enters its new harvest season. Brazil's Robusta harvest is expected to begin around April, with an estimated yield of 24 to 26 million bags, while the Arabica harvest typically starts later, around mid-year. On both exchanges, declining long positions, rising inventories, and the approaching harvests in Brazil and Indonesia are factors that are likely to drag down the market in the near future.

This week, following two days of policy meetings, the Fed announced on March 19th that it would keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25-4.5%. This move suggests the Fed wants to wait for further impact from the economic policies of US President Donald Trump. The USD exchange rate this week also partially supported coffee prices.

Domestic coffee prices closed the weekend (March 22nd) up 400-500 VND/kg in some key purchasing areas. (Source: Coffeeam)

According to World & Vietnam , at the close of trading yesterday (March 21), robusta coffee prices on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for the May 2025 delivery contract increased by $18, trading at $5,515/ton. The July 2025 delivery contract increased by $22, trading at $5,504/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange fell slightly, with the May 2025 contract declining by 1.9 cents to trade at 390.15 cents/lb. The July 2025 contract fell by 0.05 cents to trade at 385.30 cents/lb. Trading volume was average high.

Domestic coffee prices closed the weekend (March 22nd) up 400-500 VND/kg in some key purchasing areas. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	25,370	+ 20
DAK LAK	133,900	+ 400
LAM DONG	132,900	+ 400
GIA LAI	133,900	+ 400
DAK NONG	134,000	+ 500

(Source: giacaphe.com)

Extreme weather has become a significant factor driving coffee production shortages in recent years. In particular, market speculation stemming from weather events in major coffee-producing countries such as Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia has contributed to the constant volatility of coffee prices.

However, according to current forecasts, robusta coffee prices may fall in 2025.

Specifically, a Reuters survey indicates that robusta coffee prices are expected to end 2025 at $4,200 per ton, a 28% decrease from the closing price on February 12, 2025. The main reason for this is the projected increase in robusta coffee production in major producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam, leading to a more abundant supply.

However, in the short term, coffee prices may remain high due to stable demand and reduced supply. Coffee prices in key growing regions of the Central Highlands such as Dak Lak, Lam Dong, Gia Lai, and Dak Nong are currently averaging around 133,900 VND/kg, a slight increase compared to the previous day. In addition, weather factors, especially the El Niño phenomenon, are also affecting coffee production, contributing to the short-term price increase.

Overall, robusta coffee prices may fall in 2025 due to increased supply, but in the short term, prices may remain high due to factors such as stable demand, reduced supply, and weather effects.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-2432025-gia-ca-phe-trong-nuoc-giu-vung-da-tang-du-bao-xu-huong-gia-robusta-308644.html